- The research by Adrian Zenz is the first such peer-reviewed analysis of the long-term population impact of Beijing’s multi-year crackdown in the western region.
- But based on analysis of official birth data, demographic projections, and ethnic ratios proposed by Chinese academics and officials, Zenz estimates Beijing’s policies could increase the predominant Han Chinese population in southern Xinjiang to around 25% from the current 8.4%.
- The new research compares a population projection done by Xinjiang-based researchers for the government-run Chinese Academy of Sciences based on data predating the crackdown to official data on birth rates and what Beijing describes as “population optimization.”
- It found the population of ethnic minorities in Uyghur-dominated southern Xinjiang would reach between 8.6-10.5 million by 2040 under the new birth prevention policies.
- That compares to 13.14 million projected by Chinese researchers using data pre-dating the implemented birth policies and a current population of around 9.47 million.
Read the original story here.
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