TIPP Tracking Poll Day 1: Harris Holds Narrow 3-Point Lead Over Trump

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the national popular vote, with 49% to 46%, according to the latest TIPP tracking poll of 1,212 likely voters conducted online from Friday, October 11 to Sunday, October 13. This is the first release of our 23-day tracking poll series. Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, TIPP continues to bring you the latest insights on the race. The survey has a margin of error of +/-2.9 points.

For full access to detailed findings, demographic breakdowns, and key insights, subscribe to receive the complete report and enjoy 23 days of keeping you posted.

Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:

Fortune on 2020 election results
Washington Post on 2020 election results

2016 Presidential Election:

As noted by Fox News, the IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two polls to predict President Trump's victory in 2016t, ours was the only national poll to show Trump ahead in a four-way race heading into Election Day 2016.

Media Comments on the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll for Election 2016

"The gold standard going forward." — The Hill

"IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the only major national poll in November to give Trump the lead in a race including third-party candidates." — USA Today

"Investor's Business Daily was the best poll." — Bill O'Reilly, The O'Reilly Factor

"This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right." — Investor's Business Daily

"Mayur's firm Technometrica conducts the Investor's Business Daily Poll, which was rated the "most accurate" poll of the three prior elections. Make that four." — The Star-Ledger (NJ.com)

"Almost everybody got it wrong, except Mayur." — The Record (NorthJersey.com)

"IBD/TIPP Tracking turned out to be the most accurate pollster." — Mediaite