With less than a month to go before the election, who has the edge in the presidential race, Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump? Disappointing as it might be to both sides, the race remains too close to call. But Trump has a solid lead when it comes to voter trust in dealing with the nation’s most serious issues, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.
First, the big question we’ve asked each month since beginning our presidential poll: “If the presidential election were held today, and the following were the candidates, for whom would you vote?”
In the national online poll of 997 likely voters taken from Oct. 2-4, former President Trump garnered 46% support while Vice President Harris received 49% in a head-to-head matchup. Another 1% of those responding said “other” and 4% said “not sure.” The poll’s margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points means the race remains a statistical tossup.
The poll results are pretty much a partisan affair, particularly with regard to the two major parties. Among Democrats, 94% back Harris and 4% back Trump, with 1% not sure. For Republicans, 93% support Trump, while 3% go with Harris and 2% still aren’t sure.
So the difference in the head-to-head competition appears to come down to third-party and independent voters. There, Harris seems to have built a lead: She wins 52% of that vote, to Trump’s 36%. But a sizeable 10% say they’re not sure, and 2% say they’ll vote for someone else.
What if you add in “someone else,” namely a third-party or independent candidate? What happens then?
That leads to the second question in the poll: “If the presidential election were held today, and the following were the candidates, for whom would you vote?”
Interestingly, the results don’t change much when third party and independent candidates are included. Harris attracts 48% to Trump’s 45%, with author-activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. taking 2%. Professor-activist Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein each took 0% when their share is rounded down, only a handful of votes total.
So even with the independent candidates added, Harris maintains a 3-percentage point lead, which is still just within the margin of error.
Voters, as any politician or pollster can tell you, can be fickle. Sometimes they say one thing, vote another. So to reduce the “fickle factor,” I&I/TIPP asks a number of questions meant to decipher what voters really think.
Start with the following: “Regardless of your candidate preference, who do you expect to win the presidential election in November?”
Voters strongly expect Harris (44%) to win rather than Trump (38%), while 14% say it’s “too close to call” and another 4% say they don’t know enough to render a judgment.
However, if you change the orientation of the question somewhat, you get a different answer: “To the best of your knowledge, if the presidential election were held today, who do you believe most of your neighbors would vote for?”
Here, the respondent isn’t speaking for himself or herself, but for presumed others in their social circle. Studies show this has, in the past, often been a better predictor of election outcomes than asking only how someone plans to vote.
Interestingly perhaps, the overall results flip-flop on this question, with 42% answering Trump and 38% answering Harris, with a hefty 20% “not sure.” Even independents are split, 36% Trump to 36% Harris, in predicting whom their neighbors will vote for.
What can account for this gap?
In last week’s I&I/TIPP polling story, we noted a significant recent study that found: “In the last year alone, 61% of Americans reported that they have avoided saying things that they believe because others might find them offensive.”
Which raises a significant question: Are Americans too cowed by aggressive big media outlets and loudly polarized political rhetoric to tell opinion-takers and poll-makers the truth about what they actually believe? Have voters been intimidated? It seems that may be true.
I&I/TIPP asked voters, apart from their voting preferences, which candidate would be best at addressing a long list of serious critical national problems?
The question read: “Regardless of whom you support, whom do you trust more on the following issues?”
Here, Trump appears to have a fairly solid lead, despite slightly trailing in the overall numbers.
He wins outright on six issues, including “improving national security” (Trump 50%, Harris 45%), “lowering the national debt” (Trump 46%, Harris 44%), “growing the economy” (Trump 49%, Harris 48%), “securing the border” (Trump 54%, Harris 41%), “reducing crime” (Trump 48%, Harris 46%), “implementing a strong foreign policy” (Trump 50%, Harris 46%).
Trump and Harris tie on two issues: “cutting spending” (Trump 46%, Harris 46%), and “cutting inflation” (Trump 47%, Harris 47%). But Harris leads on just two issues, “ensuring energy security/energy independence” (Harris 48%, Trump 47%) and, perhaps surprisingly, “reducing taxes” (Harris 48%, Trump 45%).
What does it all mean? As we discussed above, it’s possible there’s bias in polling data caused by people fearing that their views might become known or worrying about what others would think of them. American political life, while always rough and tumble, has rarely been as polarized as it is today.
The question is, who wins? That’s difficult to predict. Harris would seem, based on polls, to have an edge when it comes to the popular vote. But Trump has solid support in many swing states with large numbers of electoral votes, so he doesn’t have to win the popular vote to become president.
That was clearly shown in 2016, when Trump (46.1%) lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton (48.2%), but won the Electoral College going away, 304 to 227.
Trump lost the 2020 popular vote to Joe Biden, 51.3% to 46.8%, but the Electoral College 306 to 232, though data showed that a shift of only 124,364 votes out of 18.6 million votes in a handful of swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) would have given the victory to Trump.
With voters appearing to favor Trump on key issues, will some (including those independents and third-party voters who in our poll now favor Harris over Trump by 52% to 36%) have second thoughts when they fill out their ballots?
Will the “silent Trump voters” prevail?
We’ll find out on Nov. 5.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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