25 Days Out - Voters' Priorities Sharpen As The Nation Faces A Defining Moment

• Forty-three percent prioritize the economy as the country's most important issue
• Immigration/border security and gun violence are the other top concerns
• Abortion rose in importance to third place
• Nearly two-thirds express dissatisfaction with the direction of the country

What are Americans' priorities just 25 days before the November election?

Forty-three percent identified the economy as the country's most important issue, followed by immigration and border security at 36 percent. Abortion and gun violence/gun control are also significant concerns for 19 percent and 17 percent of survey respondents, respectively.

In the run-up to the election, abortion has gained importance, rising to the third spot, while it was at the tenth place and was rated an important issue by only 12% in January.

These results are from the latest TIPP Poll, which surveyed 1,488 Americans and was completed in early October. The poll asked participants, "What are the top three issues facing the country?"

Twelve other issues received double-digit responses: gun violence/gun control (17%), health care (17%), crime (17%), national debt/federal government spending (15%), home affordability (15%), homelessness (14%), climate change (13%), trust in government/politicians (12%), threats to democracy (12%), terrorism/national security (11%), lack of unity/division in the country (10%), and the 2024 election (10%).

Meanwhile, mental health (9%), the Russia/Ukraine war and global security (6%), the Israel-Hamas conflict (6%), racial justice (5%), China-U.S. relations (3%), and coronavirus (2%) are in the bottom tier, each garnering under ten percent.

Priorities varied along party and ideological lines.

For Democrats, the top issues are the economy (35%), abortion (29%), gun violence/gun control (23%), health care (21%), and climate change (21%).

Republicans, on the other hand, prioritized immigration and border security (60%), the economy (51%), national debt/government spending (23%), and crime (18%).

Independents aligned more closely with Republicans, with their top issues being the economy (43%), immigration/border security (31%), gun violence/gun control (20%), homelessness (18%), and home affordability (18%).

Top Economic Issues

From a list of 21 economy-related issues, the survey respondents picked their top three concerns.

Food prices (48%), inflation (48%), people’s ability to pay their bills (26%), and home affordability (23%) are among the top three economic issues facing Americans.

Government spending (20%), gasoline prices (19%), tax rates (16%), recession (15%), and lack of good jobs (11%) received double-digit responses.

Direction Of Country

Each month, the TIPP Poll probes the general sentiment​ regarding the country’s direction, asking, "In general, how satisfied are you with the direction that the country is going in at this time?"

Nearly two-thirds (61%) are dissatisfied with the country’s direction. 32% said they are not at all satisfied, and 29% are not very satisfied. Most Republicans (82%) and independents (67%) expressed dissatisfaction. Over one-half (61%) of Democrats are satisfied, and 37% are dissatisfied.

We also compute a compact index from responses to the question. The index ranges from 0 to 100. A score of 50 or above is positive, below 50 is negative, and 50 is neutral.

Overall, the index entered the negative zone in September 2021 and has remained there for 36 months. The October reading is 38.7.

Democrats have the most optimistic reading, at 60.2, while Republicans have the lowest score (22.1), indicating extreme pessimism. Independents are in the middle at 33.5 and remain pessimistic.

Democrats fell 17.1 points from a high of 77.3 in April 2021 to 60.2 this month—a 22% drop. Their median during Biden’s presidency is 60.3.

Republicans' slide began after the elections in December 2020, and they have been posting pessimistic readings (under 50) for 47 months in a row, with a median of 21.1 during Biden's presidency.

Independents’ median rating during Biden's presidency is 31.2.

The table below shows the TIPP Direction of Country Index readings for the past five election cycles in October of the election year, which is the month preceding the presidential election. While a weak Direction of Country Index is not advantageous for the incumbent party, it does not guarantee a win for the challenger. For example, Barack Obama won reelection in October 2012 despite a weak Direction of Country Index.

With high food prices and near-stagnant income, households are forced to tighten their budgets. Uncontrolled immigration and rising crime rates are making matters worse. The pervasive disenchantment does not bode well for incumbent Democrats in 2024.

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