Auf Wiedersehen, Herr Scholz! Will Musk Propel AfD To Power In Germany?
On December 20, Elon Musk, moments after playing a significant role in Washington's annual government shutdown drama, had set his sights 4,000 miles across the Atlantic.
The billionaire tech entrepreneur and owner of X publicly endorsed the conservative political party in Germany (Alternativ fur Deutschland - AfD) by posting on his platform: "Only the AfD can save Germany." Just days earlier, the center-left coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz had collapsed, forcing Scholz to call for snap elections in Germany.
Under Scholz, Germany has lost its focus as it chased a pan-European vision for globalization, subservient to the United States. It expanded the military budget to hundreds of billions of dollars to support Ukraine, sending weapons and equipment to the beleaguered country. Scholz cut off the umbilical cord of cheap and limitless Russian energy and caused Germany to give up its innate leadership in innovation, engineering, and manufacturing, all of which had placed Germany on the world map as one of the wealthiest countries.
As we noted in these columns a few days ago, Scholz has been particularly bad at managing Germany. Europe's largest economy has seen its auto industry, a cornerstone of its might, suffer irreversible consequences. As manufacturing costs rose, the country's automakers, slow to embrace Electric Vehicles, are steadily losing business to Chinese and American competitors. Volkswagen, the country's largest employer with an 87-year history, announced that it planned to shut at least three factories in Germany, lay off tens of thousands of staff, and shrink its remaining plants, the first time it was resorting to such action. The German economy continues to be in a recession.
According to a September survey published by Infratest Dimap, Scholz's popularity ratings were some of the lowest ever recorded by a German leader, at just 18%. In November, the German broadcaster DW characterized Scholz's government as the most unpopular in postwar history.
The AfD is known for its anti-immigration, pro-Russian, and Eurosceptic stances, all of which are a no-no for Scholz. However, Scholz is a leader with a weak future and probably faces an exit from political life altogether, like other NeoCon leaders in the United States, such as Vice President Kamala Harris, former Vice President Mike Pence, and Liz Cheney. Besides, voters appear to be on the AfD's side, and Musk knows when to pick a winning horse.
In the 2024 European Parliament elections, AfD secured 15.9% of the vote, becoming the second-largest party in Germany. In September 2024, in regional elections in eastern Germany, where the conservative moment is still significant, the AfD won big. In the state of Thuringia, the party won 32.8% of the vote, forming the government there. In Brandenburg, the AfD secured 29.2% of the vote, narrowly losing to the Social Democrats (SPD), who received 30.9%.
The latest polling and party breakdown underscore Germany’s shifting political tides, as illustrated below:
German politicians, whose eyes are always on Washington, should not have been surprised by Musk's tweet. Ever since Musk acquired Twitter, made the social media platform all about protecting free speech, and teamed up with President-elect Trump to power his landslide victory last month, Musk's political positioning has been well known. The billionaire believes that a country has to protect its borders as a bulwark against illegal immigration while investing efforts to focus inwards on domestic priorities.
The endorsement could come with risks for Musk's Tesla, which has a major factory in Germany. The AfD has historically opposed Tesla's operations in Germany due to environmental concerns, creating a paradoxical situation in which Musk supports a party that opposes his company's interests in the country. However, President-elect Trump has also been critical of EV mandates, stating that these would harm auto employment in the Midwest - and that Trumpian policy has not diluted Musk's support for Trump.
Musk's move signifies his broader political alignment with conservative populist movements across Europe, following his support for other figures like Italy's Giorgia Meloni and the UK's Nigel Farage. Such a shift could expand Musk's political influence from tech and business into international politics, potentially affecting the narrative around "Country-first" politics in Europe.
Musk's endorsement of AfD has been met with significant backlash. German politicians from various parties have criticized Musk for interfering in German politics, with some accusing him of supporting a party with neo-Nazi ties. According to Euronews, Dennis Radtke, a Member of the European Parliament, called Musk's comments "irritating and unacceptable," accusing the billionaire of meddling in Germany's election. Radtke also labeled Musk a "threat to democracy" and criticized X as a platform for spreading disinformation, standard lines of attack used by Democrats in the United States.
If Trump's experience is an indication, Musk's AfD endorsement could influence public perception and voter sentiment, particularly among his followers on X. Given his global influence, his support might lend the AfD more visibility and legitimacy, especially in the international context. AfD, which is currently #2 in the polls, could well win and form the next government under Alice Weidel, the AfD's candidate for chancellor. Such an outcome will trigger transformational changes in Germany and across Europe, including Germany's support for Ukraine and the role that Germany would play in a weakened European Union.
It is little wonder that Musk is getting under the skin of Germany's establishment political leaders.