Decoding The Key Issues Driving Black Voters In 2024

As we approach election day, the priorities of Black voters—both men and women—are coming into sharp focus.

In the 2024 election cycle, every vote could tip the balance. Trump, who fell just 45,000 votes short in three swing states in 2020, is now making surprising gains among Black voters. In 2016, exit polls showed that Trump had just 8% support from Black voters, which increased to 12% in 2020. However, in a striking shift, the latest TIPP Tracking Poll shows Trump now earning 17% of the Black vote.

Our recent MaxDiff analysis and survey results reveal which issues matter most to these crucial voting blocs. The insights not only highlight the key concerns but also provide a roadmap for campaigns aiming to connect with these voters.

Over the past eight days, our MaxDiff module, embedded in the TIPP Tracking Poll, collected insights from over 4,000 respondents, providing a wealth of actionable data.

What Is MaxDiff Analysis?

MaxDiff (Maximum Difference) analysis is a survey technique used to measure preferences. Instead of simply rating issues on a scale, respondents are asked to choose the most important and least important issues from a set of options. This forces tough trade-offs, helping us determine which issues matter most. For instance, if the economy scores 40 and climate change receives 10, voters consider the economy four times more important than climate change. This provides a clearer picture of what drives voter decisions.

MaxDiff produces ratio-based scores that show the relative importance of each issue. This method is more accurate than traditional ranking because it captures the strength of preferences, not just the order.

Our analysis also produces the Share of Importance—the percentage of attention or concern given to each issue across respondents. Let’s examine the distinct differences and commonalities between Black men and Black women in their issue priorities.

Top Concerns for Black Men

For Black men, the economy emerges as the dominant issue, with a MaxDiff score of 8.97—indicating high importance. Concerns around health care and gun violence closely follow it health care and gun violence.

MaxDiff Scores for Black Men:

• Economy – 8.97
• Health Care – 7.36
• Gun Violence/Gun Control – 6.69
• Homelessness – 6.45
• Home Affordability – 6.35
• Crime – 5.99

The scores for the 20 issues we used in our research add up to 100. The relative importance for the issues is the average of scores across the 282 Black men. Using this data, one can say that the Economy, which receives a score of 8.97, is over twice as important as climate change, which gets 4.06, or over four times more important than the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Clearly, economic concerns dominate the list for Black men, but safety and housing also feature prominently. Let’s see how these priorities compare when looking at Share of Importance.

When we look at the Share of Importance, the economy is even more striking, taking 14.6% of the issue importance. Abortion and gun violence rank just below, signaling major areas of concern that any campaign targeting Black men should address.

Share of Importance for Black Men:

• Economy – 14.6%
• Abortion – 8.7%
• Gun Violence/Gun Control – 7.7%
• Election 2024 – 7.3%
• Threats to Democracy – 6.5%
• Health Care – 6.3%

This data suggests that economic security and safety are key themes that campaigns should prioritize when addressing the Black male electorate.

Now let’s turn to Black women, who, while also focused on the economy, balance their priorities with other key issues.

Top Concerns for Black Women

Black women, while also concerned with the economy, show a slightly different pattern of priorities. The MaxDiff scores highlight gun violence and health care as close competitors to the economy for the most important issue.

MaxDiff Scores for Black Women:

• Economy – 8.18
• Gun Violence/Gun Control – 8.12
• Health Care – 7.62
• Homelessness – 6.68
• Crime – 6.55
• Home Affordability – 6.41

Looking at the Share of Importance, the economy again ranks highest at 11.8%, but gun violence (10.4%) and abortion (9.2%) are close behind, signaling more attention to personal safety and reproductive rights.

Share of Importance for Black Women:

• Economy – 11.8%
• Gun Violence/Gun Control – 10.4%
• Abortion – 9.2%
• Election 2024 – 8.7%
• Home Affordability – 7.0%
• Homelessness – 6.4%

It’s clear from this data that Black women are balancing economic concerns with a sharp focus on health and safety issues, particularly around gun control and reproductive rights.

Key Takeaways for Campaigns

1. Economic Security Is Key—But Not Alone

The economy is the leading concern for Black men and women, but it is far from the only issue. Campaigns should consider policies that address wage growth, affordable housing, and economic equality, especially given the focus on these issues from both Black men and women.

2. Safety and Social Issues Matter

Both groups share concerns about safety and gun violence, but Black women place greater emphasis on abortion and health care, while Black men focus more on crime and homelessness. Addressing these concerns with clear, actionable plans will be essential for gaining their support.

3. Personal Health Care and Housing Are Top Priorities

Health care is a key issue for both groups, and affordable housing is not far behind.

Interested in More Detailed Insights or Other Segments?

Few campaigns are leveraging data as precisely as this. By using our MaxDiff insights, you can gain a crucial advantage by addressing exactly what voters care about most.

We are ready to share the insights from our comprehensive MaxDiff analysis, which surveyed 4,200 respondents and reveals issue preferences across key voter segments. Whether you're targeting swing voters, suburban communities, or critical groups like Black men and Black women, our data offers powerful, actionable insights that you can use as input for your campaign strategy.

Unlock the potential of data-driven decisions and refine your messaging to address the issues that matter most to voters. Reach out to us via our contact form to see how our insights can help you stay ahead of your competition and build a winning campaign. Don’t miss this opportunity to harness the power of voter insights. Contact us today and build your path to success.

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1. Polling-based Model—derived from RCP national polling averages
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3. Combo Model—equally weighting both polling and betting data

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• Polling-based Model:

Trump 271 – Harris 267
Trump win probability: 54.3% | Harris: 44.4% | Tie: 1.25%

• Betting-based Model:

Trump 280 – Harris 258
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• Combo Model:

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