Americans’ confidence in finding a new job has fallen to a record low, underscoring growing strain in the U.S. labor market. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said the probability of finding a job dropped to 43.1% in December, the lowest level since its Survey of Consumer Expectations began in 2013.
The survey also showed rising fears of job loss, while voluntary quitting fell to its lowest level in more than two years.
Big uptick in the % of individuals seeing a higher chance of losing their job in December per the NY Fed's consumer survey ... biggest increase since March pic.twitter.com/YK9qYrpocD
— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) January 8, 2026
Hiring activity has slowed sharply, with economists pointing to uncertainty tied to trade and immigration policy as factors weighing on business investment. Wage growth has cooled, and long-term unemployment has increased.
Health care and leisure sectors accounted for most job gains in 2025, masking broader weakness across industries.
Economists expect the December jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to show modest hiring, though many warn overall momentum remains soft despite low layoffs.
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TIPP Staff
