Three Gauges, One Outlier
Three widely watched surveys measure U.S. consumer confidence. Judged against each one's own history, RCM/TIPP and the Conference Board sit near normal; Michigan is near a record low.
TIPP Indexes
The Divide Widens
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose 0.5 points to 45.6 in September, its best reading since March. The gain came almost entirely from investors, and the confidence gap between investors and everyone else is now the second-widest on record.
The Rebound Holds
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index held July's rebound in August, easing just 0.4 points to 45.1, as personal finances firmed and the six-month outlook slipped.
Twenty-One Out Of Twenty-One
Every group we track saw its economic outlook rise. Investors are back above neutral. The headline just posted its biggest gain in 20 months.
Geoeconomic Risk Just Hit Its Highest Level In 25 Years
TIPP's new Geoeconomic Risk Index debuts at 92 out of 100, surpassing the peak it set when Russia invaded Ukraine, and driven this time by one force above all: trade policy.
Introducing The TIPP Geoeconomic Risk Index
A monthly gauge of the geopolitical, trade, and supply-chain pressures bearing on the world economy, built on Federal Reserve data and 25 years of TIPP polling, and validated against every major crisis since 2001.
Down To Two
Just two of 21 groups still have economic confidence. Investors are no longer one of them.
Trump’s Approval Ratings Remain Low As Voters Fret Over Economy, Inflation: I&I/TIPP Poll
Can Trump reverse his slump in time for fall's midterm elections?
What The Ceasefire Couldn’t Fix
Last month, 20 of 21 groups saw optimism fall. This month, 20 of 21 saw stress fall. But the headline sentiment index barely budged. Relief is not the same thing as recovery.
The Best Contrary Indicator On Wall Street May Be Your Neighbor
When retail investors got scared in April, the S&P 500 hit 7,000 for the first time. It has happened before.
Twenty Out of Twenty-One
Of the 21 demographic groups the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index tracks each month, 20 declined in April. The one that didn't barely moved. As Middle East tensions mount, the data captures something rare: a nation united. In anxiety.
Introducing The TIPP Investor Outlook Index
A New Monthly Measure of Where Retail Investors Think the Market Is Headed