The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose 0.5 points to 45.6 in September, its best reading since March. The gain came almost entirely from investors, and the confidence gap between investors and everyone else is now the second-widest on record.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index held July's rebound in August, easing just 0.4 points to 45.1, as personal finances firmed and the six-month outlook slipped.
Every group we track saw its economic outlook rise. Investors are back above neutral. The headline just posted its biggest gain in 20 months.
TIPP's new Geoeconomic Risk Index debuts at 92 out of 100, surpassing the peak it set when Russia invaded Ukraine, and driven this time by one force above all: trade policy.
A monthly gauge of the geopolitical, trade, and supply-chain pressures bearing on the world economy, built on Federal Reserve data and 25 years of TIPP polling, and validated against every major crisis since 2001.
Just two of 21 groups still have economic confidence. Investors are no longer one of them.
Can Trump reverse his slump in time for fall's midterm elections?
Last month, 20 of 21 groups saw optimism fall. This month, 20 of 21 saw stress fall. But the headline sentiment index barely budged. Relief is not the same thing as recovery.
When retail investors got scared in April, the S&P 500 hit 7,000 for the first time. It has happened before.
Of the 21 demographic groups the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index tracks each month, 20 declined in April. The one that didn't barely moved. As Middle East tensions mount, the data captures something rare: a nation united. In anxiety.
A New Monthly Measure of Where Retail Investors Think the Market Is Headed
The economy isn’t failing; it’s splitting. And the latest March data shows just how wide the gap has become.
