The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, but persistent inflation could prompt Chairman Kevin Warsh to signal further increases in the coming months.
US consumer inflation reached 3.7% in September, while core inflation stood at 2.6%, remaining above the Fed’s 2% target. Rising energy prices have contributed to the pressure. Meanwhile, mortgage rates above 7% are weighing on housing, and the labour market continues to show limited hiring.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, futures markets assign a low probability to an October hike but expect a stronger chance of an increase in December.
Allianz economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian argues that fiscal restraint, rather than monetary tightening, would better address inflation concerns without placing additional pressure on vulnerable parts of the economy.
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Former White House economic adviser on Fed rates: ‘Tough position’ for Warsh https://t.co/MNhsmCifrb
— The Hill (@thehill) October 27, 2026
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