Fix The H-1B, Now

President Trump made news in MAGA world recently when he challenged Laura Ingraham on her Fox News show about the H-1B visa.

This visa, which has garnered significant attention since last December when Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla and SpaceX, publicly clashed with Vivek Ramaswamy, another billionaire Trump supporter now running for Ohio governor, has sparked a heated debate in the tech industry.

The H-1B visa, capped at 85,000 per year, allows U.S. employers to hire foreign workers in specialty occupations that require at least a bachelor's. But for the last 25 years or so, the visa has been synonymous with fraud.

Trump has repeatedly vacillated on the H-1B issue. During his 2016 campaign, he stated that he would put an immediate end to it if elected, as it is unfair to our workers. However, on  Sunday, Trump defended the H-1B visa, telling Laura Ingraham, "We have to bring in talent."

Ingraham: "We have plenty of talented people."

Trump: "No you don't, no you don't. You don't have certain talents... You have to bring in talent."

The exchange created such a furor with his MAGA base that Trump officials were posting aggressive messages to calm them.

Appearing on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer announced that there are already 200 active H-1B Project Firewall investigations into companies that "are abusing the program." She said, "We want to make sure they are following the law and not abusing and depressing wages with foreign labor. That is not the goal of the program....We want to make sure we're providing the skilled workforce so that Americans have these jobs first and foremost."

To the uninitiated, the debate is very confusing.

Sen. Jim Banks of Indiana is one of the few leaders, along with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who appear serious about defining the problem and suggesting ways to fix it.

In September, Banks introduced the American Tech Workforce Act to align the visa program with labor market demands and protect American workers. The key provisions of the bill are:

1. Raise the wage floor for H-1B visas from $60,000 to $150,000. Banks argues that companies that truly need foreign specialists should pay them the same as top American workers, ending the incentive to undercut domestic wages.

2. End the Optional Practical Training program. Banks says international students shouldn't have a backdoor to replace American graduates. In an op-ed in Blaze, Banks maintains that the OPT isn't authorized by law. It has no cap, no wage floor, and no accountability. Worse, it acts as a corporate subsidy as employers don't pay payroll taxes on any of the half million foreign workers now in the country under this program.

3. Replace the H-1B lottery with a system that awards visas to the highest bidder. Banks argues that third-party agencies flood the H-1B lottery with low-quality applications to drive down wages. His bill would block those schemes and create a marketplace where visas go to the highest bidders — boosting both fairness and economic value.

Banks noted that the bill has been endorsed by the Immigration Accountability Project, the American Principles Project, the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), U.S. Tech Workers, and NumbersUSA.

But Banks' proposal has little chance of becoming law. It has no co-sponsors in the Senate. No GOP senator has publicly supported the legislation. Many in Congress argue that Banks' bill could exacerbate talent shortages, raise hiring costs, and harm U.S. innovation. International students and firms reliant on OPT (e.g., for STEM talent) warn of reduced global competitiveness. Indeed, on the Ingraham show, Trump alluded to the impact on the American economy of restricting the entry of international students.

Trump has taken some steps to curtail H-1B visa abuse at the corporate level. In a presidential proclamation issued on September 19, Trump stated that the United States would require a $100,000 payment to accompany any new H-1B petition filed after September 21, 2025, including those for the 2026 lottery. The idea is to deter low-wage hiring by using new funds to support American worker training. The rule would apply only to those outside the U.S. seeking entry under new petitions.

As with all Trump Executive Orders, this proclamation is also being challenged in the courts. A coalition of United Auto Workers, American Association of University Professors, healthcare providers (e.g., nurse recruitment agencies), religious organizations, schools, and individual H-1B workers (e.g., "Phoenix Doe," an Indian postdoctoral researcher facing delays) has filed suit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California (San Francisco).

The plaintiffs argue that the fee is an unconstitutional tax and an indication of executive overreach that bypasses Congress's H-1B framework, disrupting critical sectors like healthcare, education, and rural services. It also violates due process by creating chaos without following the notice-and-comment rulemaking process, and its exemptions enable arbitrary enforcement and corruption.

Numerous stakeholders have significant stakes in the H-1B visa debate. We list 14 forces pulling in various directions, creating a complex tug-of-war.

1. U.S. Tech Companies (e.g., Google, Microsoft, Amazon) – Rely on H-1B for engineering talent; oppose high fees and wage floors that raise costs.

2. Indian IT Outsourcing Firms (e.g., Infosys, TCS, Wipro) – Dominate ~50% of H-1B approvals; heavily impacted by anti-outsourcing rules and third-party placement bans.

3. American STEM Workers & Labor Unions (e.g., United Auto Workers, IEEE-USA) – Advocate for reforms to prevent wage suppression and job displacement.

4. Universities & International Students (F-1/OPT) – Depend on OPT as a bridge to H-1B; oppose OPT elimination in bills like Banks'.

5. Immigration Attorneys & Advocacy Groups (e.g., AILA, Red Eagle Law) – Represent visa holders and employers; file lawsuits and push for legal pathways.

6. Conservative Think Tanks (e.g., FAIR, Center for Immigration Studies) – Support restrictions, citing national security and American worker priority.

7. Business Lobbies (e.g., U.S. Chamber of Commerce, CompTIA) – Challenge executive overreach and high fees in court; warn of innovation loss.

8. Indian Government & Diaspora Organizations – 72% of H-1Bs go to Indian nationals, raising diplomatic concerns over discriminatory impact.

9. Startups & Venture Capital – Need flexible talent pipelines; fear talent shortages under strict wage or fee rules.

10. Healthcare Providers & Rural Hospitals – Use H-1B for foreign doctors and nurses; argue restrictions harm underserved communities.

11. Congressional Republicans (e.g., Sen. Jim Banks, Trump allies) – Push legislation and executive actions to "put Americans first."

12. Congressional Democrats (e.g., Sen. Durbin, Rep. Lofgren) – Support reforms but favor merit-based increases, not blanket bans or fees.

13. Religious & Nonprofit Organizations – Sponsor H-1B for clergy, educators, and humanitarian roles; argue exemptions needed for public good.

14. High-Skilled Immigrants & H-1B Holders – Directly affected by caps, fees, and renewal risks; organize via forums and legal challenges.

It is little wonder that there has been no action on the H-1B visa since 1990, when it first became law. But, as with anything Congress does, a law with good intentions has become unmanageable. The program must be fixed so that it is fair to American workers, while also maintaining American global competitiveness.

Inaction is unacceptable.

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📊 Market Mood — Tuesday, November 18, 2025

🟥 Futures Slip as Risk-Off Continues
U.S. stock futures edged lower early Tuesday as investors stayed cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and the delayed September jobs report.

🟧 Mixed U.S. Data; Fed Uncertainty Persists
The Empire State manufacturing index jumped to a one-year high, and construction spending surprised to the upside. Initial jobless claims came in at 232K, but with data gaps still lingering from the shutdown.
Fed officials sent mixed signals: Vice Chair Jefferson warned of labor-market risks, while Governor Waller reiterated support for a December rate cut. Markets now price in a 53.6% chance of no change, 46.4% for a cut.

🟨 Factory Orders, Fed Speakers on Deck
The delayed U.S. Factory Orders report (originally Oct. 2) arrives today, expected at +1.4% m/m. Investors will also parse remarks from Fed Governor Michael Barr and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin for clues on December policy.

🟩 Retail Earnings in Focus
Home Depot reports this morning, with big-box and e-commerce names set to follow later in the week. Retail earnings will help gauge consumer strength heading into the holiday season, especially after last week’s uneven sentiment.

🟥 Global Markets Under Pressure
Europe’s Stoxx 50 slid to a one-month low as worries over stretched tech valuations and fading hopes for a December rate cut weighed on sentiment.
Asia closed sharply lower: China’s Shanghai Composite posted a third straight loss, and Japan’s Nikkei saw its biggest drop since April as AI-linked stocks sank and stimulus worries grew. Oil and gold softened as risk sentiment stayed weak and Treasury yields eased to 4.108%.

🗓️ Key Economic Events — Tuesday, November 18, 2025

🟨 08:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly filings for unemployment benefits — an important early read on labor-market conditions and a key input for the Fed’s rate outlook.