Global Growth At Risk If Oil Stays Above $100, EBRD Warns

Sustained oil prices at or above $100 per barrel could slow global growth and fuel inflation, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development warned, as reported by CNBC.

According to the bank, a 10 percent rise in oil prices typically reduces global economic growth by 0.1 percentage points.

The report said that if prices remain elevated and supply chain disruptions persist, global growth could fall by at least 0.4 percentage points, while inflation may increase by more than 1.5 percentage points.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Warns of Slower Growth Amid Middle East Tensions #QNAhttps://t.co/3RPNNOy6nI pic.twitter.com/iCgOpw9lU1

— Qatar News Agency (@QNAEnglish) March 26, 2026

Oil prices have surged by around 40 to 45 percent since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began, pushing Brent crude above $105 per barrel.

Chief economist Beata Javorcik said geopolitical tensions are rapidly impacting energy markets and financial stability. The report added that energy-importing economies, especially those linked to Gulf markets, face the greatest risks.

Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development maintained its 2026 global growth forecast at 2.9 percent.

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tippinsightsTIPP Staff