By Gage Klipper, Daily Caller News Foundation | November 01, 2024
The latest GDP and jobs reports are out, and they paint a pretty rosy picture of the U.S. economy just days before the election. Surprise, surprise.
The economy expanded by 2.8% from July to September, according to Commerce Department figures. The growth is said to be driven by consumer spending, also up 3.7% during this time. Job gains actually slowed to the lowest point since 2020, a sharp decline from 254,000 in September to just 12,000 in October, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Yet the regime has plenty of excuses — storms and strikes — and touts how the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. Meanwhile the inflation rate is approaching the Federal Reserve’s target, meaning it could lower interest rates as soon as next week. All told, things are looking alright — at least on the surface.
“Consumers are spending. Inflation is cooling. And the U.S. economy looks as strong as ever,” The New York Times giddily ledes with.
When the corporate media and financial regulators are on the same page, there’s always an instinctual reason to be distrustful. During the Biden-Harris administration, all the Very Smart People running the U.S. economy have made a habit of quietly revising their optimistic numbers after they come out. After all, it’s only the initial headlines that count. (Click here to watch Cleaning Up Kamala)
Dig a little deeper, and the broader metrics are not as good as the top line figures make it seem; even the Times has to admit it.
“It’s not like we’re going back to 3 percent mortgage rates anytime soon,” Jay Bryson, chief economist for Wells Fargo, told The Times 10 paragraphs in. “Single-family housing is going to stay out of reach for many Americans.”
Plus, there’s reason to think the growth is somewhat artificial. It was lifted by “businesses accelerating investments” to preemptively buffer against the “expected strike” on East Coast ports that wound up only lasting a few days. Given this, “most forecasters expect growth to slow in the fourth quarter.” Due to the “headwinds” coming later this year, “few [forecasters] would offer a confident prediction about next year.”
Furthermore, while inflation might be cooling from its post-COVD highs, it’s still “hotter-than-expected,” Axios notes, meaning the Fed might not cut rates as soon as it planned to. The American middle class can kiss home ownership goodbye.
This all follows the common pattern we’ve seen regulators follow during the Biden administration. As one fed up economist, E.J. Antoni of The Heritage Foundation, noted after last quarter’s labor figures were released, “For month after month, this administration has released overly optimistic jobs figures, which are later revised down. The labor market is nowhere near as strong as is being portrayed.”
This might even be an understatement; the downward revisions on jobs numbers have been nothing short of egregious this year. The revised figures between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024 showed there were 818,000 fewer jobs added than initially reported. But the new figures did not trickle out until August 2024, at which point it was safe for CNN to admit that job growth was “far weaker” than many thought. The pattern has continued throughout the year as well, with the last two months’ figures being revised significantly downward after their initial release. August figures were revised down by more than half, from a gain of 159,000 to just 78,000. September was less drastic, but still dropped by 31,000 jobs after revision. With just a measly 12,000 jobs added last month, there’s hardly any room to revise without the figure turning negative. Only time will tell.
Downward revisions are also an issue in growth figures, albeit to a lesser degree. Already poor Q1 2024 growth rates of 1.6% were quietly revised to a sluggish 1.3% at the end of May.
It’s an undeniable pattern. We get these awesome economic releases, a barrage of friendly headlines and then months later quiet updates that dramatically alter the actual, final number. Either all the Very Smart People are much worse at this than they used to be, or there’s some shady politicking at play. With the numbers coming days before an extremely tight election, skepticism toward the latter is certainly warranted. Either way, there’s good reason to think these new economic numbers will go down. It’s only a matter of when.
Gage Klipper writes political analysis for the Daily Caller's Patriots subscribers. He's also the resident culture and movie critic, with the Daily Caller's newsletter, "Cultured."
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