Global oil supply is set to outpace demand sharply in 2025 and 2026, raising concerns about a market glut, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported Wednesday.
Supply is expected to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and another 1.9 million bpd in 2026, driven by higher OPEC+ output and increased production from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.
Global oil markets race record glut next year: IEA https://t.co/gggI61wswO pic.twitter.com/0jUMAzVApB
— Financial Post (@financialpost) August 13, 2025
The IEA forecasts demand growth of just 680,000 bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, citing sluggish consumption in major economies and weak consumer confidence.
This gap could leave supply exceeding demand by nearly 3 million bpd next year. Brent crude prices fell below $66 a barrel after the report’s release.
Around $2.2 trillion is set to be invested collectively in renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency & electrification this year.
— International Energy Agency (@IEA) August 13, 2025
This is twice as much as the $1.1 trillion going to oil, gas & coal.
Learn more ➡️ https://t.co/TIF4DbRgT0 pic.twitter.com/dgWm5mhBSS
While OPEC maintains a more optimistic demand outlook, the IEA warns that sustained oversupply will pressure prices unless output is curbed.
Chinese stockpiling and refining expansion may absorb some excess, but the agency says "something will have to give" to balance the market.
