Japan Talks Tough

By Ian Buruma, Project Syndicate

Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, was not wrong when she recently said that the country must be prepared to defend itself even beyond its borders. But she would be in a stronger position to strengthen Japan’s military muscle if she were willing to reckon with her political forebears’ war crimes.

NEW YORK – It didn’t take long for Japan’s hawkish new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, to rile the Chinese government. On November 7, just weeks after her election, Takaichi responded to a question in parliament about a possible Chinese attack or blockade against Taiwan by saying that it could constitute a “survival-threatening situation.”

Given that Article 9 of Japan’s constitution renounces “the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes,” Japanese defenders of the status quo took issue with Takaichi’s remark. More importantly, her statement was viewed as a provocation by the Chinese government, which regards Taiwan as part of its sovereign territory.

China’s response was quick and fierce. Chinese authorities evoked memories of Japan’s World War II atrocities in China, advised Chinese tourists to avoid Japan, suspended imports of Japanese seafood, and canceled cultural events featuring Japanese artists. The Chinese Consul-General in Osaka even threatened to “cut off that dirty neck” – presumably Takaichi’s – “without a second of hesitation” in a post on X that was later deleted. Relations between the two countries have not been this bad for decades.

There is no question that Takaichi was less than diplomatic. Japanese prime ministers tend to avoid any references to military action, especially when it concerns China. But was she wrong?

Takaichi’s statement did not break any new ideological ground. When her mentor, Abe Shinzō, was prime minister, he advocated revising the constitution to allow for a more robust military that could engage in “collective self-defense” to support an ally against a common enemy. This resulted in the 2015 security law. In 2021, after leaving office, he also declared that “a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency.”

Right-wing nationalists in Japan have chafed against the country’s pacifist constitution almost since it was drafted by US jurists in 1946, during the Allied occupation. Even some Americans regarded Article 9 as a mistake. Richard Nixon expressed his dissatisfaction with Japanese disarmament as US vice president in 1953. But most Japanese people, fed up with militarism and content to focus on rebuilding the economy, approved of it.

Like Western Europe, Japan reaped the benefits of Pax Americana in the postwar period. While the United States took care of security, with its nuclear umbrella and numerous military bases, allies in the “free world” could safely get rich.

Despite Nixon’s criticism of Japan’s constitutional pacifism, US presidents were happy with this arrangement, too, because it paved a way to global power that bypassed formal empire-building. There was often talk of US allies doing more to pull their weight, but fitful attempts in Europe and Japan to become less dependent on American security guarantees were nipped in the bud.

Another reason why many Japanese – as well as people in other parts of Asia – resisted efforts to remove the constraints embedded in Japan’s constitution was that Japanese nationalists often downplayed or even denied the atrocities committed by their forebears. Politicians who prayed at Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine for the souls of dead soldiers (including convicted war criminals) were not trusted to revise Japan’s postwar pacifism. That includes Abe, but also Takaichi, who visited the shrine before she became prime minister.

But the situation has changed in recent years. China has morphed into a formidable and far more threatening power, menacing Taiwan with live-fire drills, drones, naval vessels, and increasingly pugnacious rhetoric. China’s strongman president, Xi Jinping, has refused to rule out the use of force to “reunite” Taiwan with China. Japanese hawks are right to be alarmed at the prospect of a takeover. China gaining control over the sea lanes that are vital to Japan’s economic survival would indeed be an emergency.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europeans, too, are facing threats that call into question the comfort of living under American protection. And as Shigeru Ishiba, Takaichi’s immediate predecessor, put it in February, “Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow.”

But the real source of panic among the Asian and European beneficiaries of Pax Americana is not the behavior of China or Russia, but of US President Donald Trump, who has made clear his views on America’s informal empire. Trump’s “America First” approach to foreign policy, reflecting his obsession with the idea that the US is being played by its allies, means making deals with great powers and letting smaller countries fend for themselves.

As a result, European leaders are now hastily preparing for a post-American world by boosting military spending, forming defense coalitions, and considering the possibility of national service. But even with arms factories in Germany working overtime, Europe’s remilitarization will take time, leaving the continent vulnerable to a sudden rupture with the US. At least the Europeans have strong regional allies and won’t be hampered by pacifist constitutions.

Japan’s only security, apart from its powerful military (ranked eighth in the world), is a defense treaty with the US. While Trump has not said outright that the US would not come to Japan’s rescue in an emergency, his erratic and isolationist policies suggest that American defense commitments are no longer reliable.

So, Takaichi is right to tell her fellow citizens, as well as China’s leaders, that Japan must be prepared to defend itself even beyond its borders. There should be a national debate on revising Japan’s constitution. But Takaichi would be in a stronger position to spearhead that process and strengthen Japan’s military muscle if she were willing to recognize her country’s 20th-century war crimes. Preparing for a more independent and resilient future requires acknowledging a dark and unflattering past.

Ian Buruma is the author of numerous books, including Murder in Amsterdam: The Death of Theo Van Gogh and the Limits of Tolerance, Year Zero: A History of 1945, A Tokyo Romance: A Memoir, The Churchill Complex: The Curse of Being Special, From Winston and FDR to Trump and Brexit, The Collaborators: Three Stories of Deception and Survival in World War II, and, most recently, Spinoza: Freedom’s Messiah (Yale University Press, 2024).

Copyright Project Syndicate

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