Japan Tourism Forecast Weakens Amid China Tensions

Foreign tourist arrivals to Japan are projected to fall 3% in 2026 to 41.4 million, according to an estimate by JTB, marking the first annual decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The drop is largely driven by fewer visitors from China, which typically accounts for about one fifth of overseas arrivals.

Chinese travel has slowed after Beijing urged its citizens to avoid trips to Japan, prompting airlines to cut flights. Chinese visitor growth sharply decelerated late last year and remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Foreign visitors to Japan to drop 3% in 2026, dragged by fewer Chinese https://t.co/matBoF6yNv

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) January 8, 2026

By contrast, arrivals from South Korea, the United States, Europe, and the Middle East have surpassed 2019 figures, supported by a weak yen.

Domestic labor shortages are also straining airline capacity and hotel supply. While Japan targets 60 million visitors by 2030, analysts say tourism demand may be leveling off as geopolitical tensions weigh on growth.

Also read:

Rare Earths Become Latest Flashpoint In China-Japan Standoff

China has imposed an immediate ban on exports of certain rare earth elements and other dual-use items to Japan, escalating tensions after remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Taiwan. China’s Commerce Ministry said the restrictions apply to goods that could have military applications, including rare earths, advanced

tippinsightsTIPP Staff

Japan Sees Sharp Drop In Chinese Visitor Growth After China Warning

Growth in Chinese tourist arrivals to Japan slowed sharply in November after Beijing warned citizens against traveling to the country amid rising political tensions, Japanese tourism data shows. The Japan National Tourism Organization reported 562,600 Chinese visitors in November, up just 3 percent from a year earlier. That marked

tippinsightsTIPP Staff