By Joe Bastardi, CFACT | June 23, 2025
3°C above the 30-year average—a subtle shift across a planet where 99.95% of humanity resides between the Arctic and Antarctic Circles.
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Examining the June 21 global temperature map, roughly 20–26% of the world’s population lives in the “deep red” zones, areas warmer than the 30-year norm. Meanwhile, a commanding 74–80% of people inhabit regions with normal or below-average temperatures. What does this mean? For the vast majority, conditions remain stable or cooler, while a minority faces warmer, yet manageable, challenges.
Here’s a striking nugget: a 0.33°C shift over 30 years is so subtle it’s barely perceptible to the average person, drowned out by the natural ebb and flow of weather. So, despite the breathless coverage of scorching heat in Europe and the U.S., the global reality is far less dramatic—most of the planet’s population is experiencing typical or cooler conditions.
And here is a dirty little secret: without the hot spots, the global temperature between the Arctic and Antarctic Circles would likely be at or very close to the 30-year average, approximately 0°C above the baseline.
To those crying “cherry-picking,” consider this: the focus on regional heatwaves is itself a selective lens, skewing perceptions of global trends. While hot spots nudge the average up, the broader truth is that most of Earth’s inhabitants are far from sweltering. Mainstream media rarely zooms out to show this, fixating instead on, say, the orgy of tropical cyclones off Mexico while ignoring that the rest of the Northern Hemisphere’s storm activity is limping at under 10% of its norm.
So, here’s the deal: if you’re in a hot zone, take it easy. If you’re not—where most people live—carry on. Isn’t it refreshing when AI cuts through the noise with cold, hard perspective?
And above all, enjoy the weather. It’s the only weather you’ve got.
Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others”.
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