By Virginia Grace McKinnon, The Daily Signal | October 03, 2025
Drop CapWith less than five weeks before Virginia’s statewide elections, a new poll finds the Republican gubernatorial nominee, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, trending upward and closing the gap with her opponent, Democrat Abigail Spanberger.
The poll conducted by A2 Insights found Earle-Sears trailing Spanberger, a former three-term member of Congress, by 3.1 points—marking the closest margin Virginians have seen in the race to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 44.6% said Earle-Sears, while 47.7% said Spanberger. Some 6.4% said they were undecided, and 1.3% said they would vote for another candidate.
A2 Insights, a nonpartisan public opinion polling firm, surveyed 771 likely voters through an online panel between Sept. 26 and Sept. 28. It didn’t give a margin of error.
Polls continue to show Earle-Sears gaining ground. In less than a month, she has gained 9 points.
In early September, the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University found Earle-Sears trailing Spanberger by 12 points. The Wason Center surveyed 808 likely Virginia voters and had a margin of error of 3.9%. Spanberger led with 52%, Earle-Sears at 40%, and 8% undecided.
A week later, the polling firm Co/Efficient found Earle-Sears just 6 points behind Spanberger. That survey of 1,024 likely voters had a margin of error of 3.05% with Spanberger at 49%, Earle-Sears at 43%, and 7% undecided.
With more than 147,000 federal workers living in Virginia, it’s unclear how the current Democrat-led federal government shutdown could affect the election.
The offices of the Virginia lieutenant governor and the state attorney general will also be up for grabs in the off-year elections on Nov. 4. Early voting has already begun.
Virginia Grace McKinnon is a Daily Signal intern.
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