Indian imports of Russian oil are set to hit a 3-year low in December, but despite punitive U.S. tariffs, trade ties between the two countries – particularly in energy and arms – are set to strengthen.
At the summit meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the leaders signed an array of memorandums, spanning oil and gas, fertilizer, petrochemicals, nuclear-energy cooperation, and a plan to elevate bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on India are designed to discourage India from continuing to purchase Russian oil, and a surge in imports ahead of the November 21 deadline appeared to indicate that India importers were going to heed the warning, but Russia seems confident it’s merely a temporary setback.
For Russia, the summit offers a rare opportunity: India remains a key market for discounted crude and a major buyer of Russian arms.
For India, the imports offer more than just resources — they supply fuel for an expanding economy and sustain strategic defense ties forged over decades. But above all, the summit is a reaffirmation of a strategic relationship designed to endure turbulence, and a calculated gamble that mutual need will outweigh mounting external scrutiny.
