By Brahma Chellaney, Project Syndicate | Feb 11, 2025
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump are meeting this week, following a period of fraying ties. It is in both countries’ interest to revitalize the bilateral relationship, including by strengthening collaboration on critical technologies.
NEW DELHI – Last time Donald Trump was president, ties between the United States and India flourished. But the bilateral relationship began to fray during Joe Biden’s presidency, owing not least to divisions over the Ukraine war. Will Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s latest meeting with Trump at the White House mark the first step toward restoring this critical relationship?
Trump has made no secret of his conviction that personal bonds between leaders can underpin stronger bilateral relationships. And he and Modi certainly share an affinity: both are nationalist politicians who love little more than to please a roaring crowd with elaborate theatrics. In September 2019, the two came together for a public rally in Houston, attended by 50,000 Indian-Americans and several US legislators. The following February, Trump addressed more than 100,000 people in Ahmedabad. “America loves India,” he declared. “America respects India, and America will always be faithful and loyal friends [sic] to the Indian people.”
US-India relations took a turn for the worse after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Biden administration mobilized America’s allies and partners to join its campaign to punish Russia – and, ideally, compel it to change its behavior. But far from joining this effort, India stayed neutral and seized the opportunity to secure cheap Russian oil.
There were other points of contention, as well. The Biden administration sought to weaken Myanmar’s military junta by imposing stringent sanctions on the country and sending “non-lethal aid” to rebel groups – a policy that has contributed to instability in India’s border state of Manipur. Biden also coddled Pakistan’s military-backed regime, including by approving a $450 million deal in 2022 to upgrade the country’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets.
Similarly, Biden welcomed the interim government that Bangladesh’s military installed following the overthrow of the country’s India-friendly government last August. Bangladesh’s rapid descent into lawlessness and Islamist violence since then has raised serious security risks for India, which is already home to millions of illegally settled Bangladeshis.
America’s approach to Sikh separatist leaders on its soil has also raised India’s hackles. Under the Biden administration, the US carried out a criminal investigation into India’s alleged involvement in supposed assassination plots against Sikh militants in the US and Canada. Last September, just days before Biden met with Modi in Delaware, senior White House and US intelligence officials met with Sikh separatists to assure them that they would be protected from “transnational repression.” The following month, the US charged a former Indian intelligence officer in an alleged failed plot to kill a New York-based Sikh militant, who is on India’s most-wanted list.
Against this backdrop, it is easy to see why Trump’s victory in last November’s presidential election raised hopes in India for a reset in bilateral relations. It helps that Trump has repeatedly pledged to negotiate a quick conclusion to the Ukraine war, meaning that India’s choice not to pick a side in that conflict would no longer matter.
A few weeks into Trump’s second presidency, however, there are reasons to doubt this rosy scenario. So far, Trump has done nothing to spare India from his frenetic push to implement his campaign promises, from raising tariffs to deporting undocumented immigrants. When the Trump administration sent more than 100 Indian nationals back to India on a military aircraft – a 40-hour ordeal – their hands and feet were shackled. Modi said nothing.
In fact, far from standing up to Trump, Modi has preemptively slashed tariffs on US imports, hoping that this would keep India out of “Tariff Man’s” sights. But a dissatisfied Trump, who has called India a “very big abuser” of tariffs, has not spared India from his steel and aluminum levies. He wants India to wipe out its $35 billion bilateral trade surplus, by buying more oil and petroleum products, and more weapons, from the US.
India is the world’s third-largest primary energy consumer, after China and the US, and the largest source of oil demand growth. That makes the country a highly attractive market for a US administration that is committed to increasing domestic oil and gas production. It also means that Trump’s commitment to pushing down oil prices, including by applying pressure on OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, would benefit India’s economy.
But Trump has never been particularly concerned about ensuring that his trade agreements are mutually beneficial. Regarding India, his plan may well be to use the threat of tariffs to compel Modi’s government to accept the trade deal of his choosing. That is what he did to Japan during his first presidency. He also tried to do it to India, but failed, so he stripped India of its special trade status instead, prompting India to impose retaliatory tariffs on some US products.
If Trump ends up slapping more tariffs on India, the Indian economy could slow, at least marginally. More broadly, Trump’s “America First” trade agenda – which clashes with Modi’s “Make in India” initiative – threatens to undermine India’s status as the world’s “back office,” providing extensive IT and business services to US companies.
Where trade is concerned, Trump treats friends and foes alike. But it matters that India is a friend – and Trump should want to keep it that way. The US-India strategic partnership helps advance the two countries’ shared interests in the Indo-Pacific region, the world’s emerging economic and geopolitical hub, including strengthening maritime security and supporting a stable balance of power. Already, the two countries are working to deepen military interoperability, and the US has overtaken Russia as India’s leading weapons supplier, as new contracts show.
As Trump and Modi build on their rapport, both should recognize that India is America’s most important partner in countering China’s hegemonic ambitions. It is thus in both countries’ interest to restore and deepen the bilateral relationship, including by strengthening collaboration on critical and emerging technologies, from artificial intelligence to biotechnology. Warm personal relations are an added bonus.
Brahma Chellaney, Professor Emeritus of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including Water: Asia’s New Battleground (Georgetown University Press, 2011), for which he won the 2012 Asia Society Bernard Schwartz Book Award.
Copyright Project Syndicate
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Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Hegseth Rules Out Ukraine NATO Membership As Part Of Any Ceasefire With Russia - CBS
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia must include security guarantees for Ukraine, but that they "should not be provided through NATO membership, but must instead be backed by capable European and non-European troops."
The defense chief spoke not long before President Trump announced in a social media post that he had agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin to begin negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, during a phone call with the Russian leader on Wednesday. He said he would be calling Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately "to inform him of the conversation."
2. Trump Vows To 'Immediately' Negotiate For End To Ukraine War - VOA
President Donald Trump announced Wednesday he and Russia’s leader agreed in a phone call to “immediately” begin negotiations with Ukraine’s leader to bring an end to the nearly three-year-conflict.
“We will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now,” Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social. “I have asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, to lead the negotiations which, I feel strongly, will be successful.”
3. Ukraine: Zelenskyy Plans To Meet Trump Officials In Germany - D.W.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to meet U.S. Vice President JD Vance on Friday on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference to talk about the path toward ending Russia's nearly three-year war in Ukraine.
In a video released by Ukrainian media outlet UNIAN, Zelenskyy said he planned to meet Vance in Munich after meeting "serious people" from the Trump administration in Kyiv this week. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, might both be involved in the talks in Munich.
4. Ukraine Would Trade Land Seized In Kursk For Territory Occupied By Russia, Zelenskyy Says - RFE/RL
"We will exchange one territory for another," Zelenskyy said in an interview with the Guardian newspaper. But he added that he did not know what territory Kyiv would request from Moscow in exchange for part of the Kursk region.
"I don't know, we'll see. But all our territories are important, there is no priority here," Zelenskyy said. In the past he has refused to give up any territory taken by Russia since it launched its full-scale invasion in 2022.
5. Israel Says Gaza Ceasefire Will End If Hamas Does Not Free Hostages By Saturday - BBC
There is growing concern that fighting could resume in Gaza after Israel's prime minister warned Hamas it would end the ceasefire if the Palestinian armed group "does not return our hostages by Saturday".
It remains unclear whether Netanyahu is demanding the release of all 76 remaining hostages, or just the three due to be freed this Saturday. Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet met on Tuesday after Hamas said it was postponing freeing more hostages until further notice, claiming Israel had violated the terms of the three-week-old ceasefire deal.
6. King Abdullah To Trump: Jordan, Arab World Reject Displacement Of Palestinians In Gaza - Al Arabiya
Jordan’s King Abdullah II said he emphasized his strong rejection of the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza during his meeting with President Donald Trump, reiterating that this stance aligns with the unified position of the Arab world.
King Abdullah is the first Arab leader to visit the White House since Trump took office last month.
7. N. Korea Sent 200 Long-Range Artillery Pieces To Russia; Additional Supply Likely: Seoul - Yonhap
South Korea's defense ministry came after South Korea's spy agency earlier estimated the North to have sent some 11,000 troops to support Russia, of which 300 are believed to have been killed, with some 2,700 others wounded.
The ministry said the North is expected to double down on its weapons development this year, the final year in its five-year plan to develop sophisticated weapons, such as nuclear-powered submarines, spy satellites and solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
8. U.S. To Release Russian Alexander Vinnik As Part Of Exchange That Freed Fogel: NYT - Reuters
The United States will release Russian Alexander Vinnik, a suspected cybercrime kingpin, as part of an exchange with Russia that freed Marc Fogel, the New York Times reported.
Vinnik operated BTC-e, once one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges. He was arrested in 2017 and detained at Washington’s request on suspicion of laundering $4 billion through the exchange. In May, he pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering and faced 20 years in prison.
9. China Pledges Measures To Boost Dwindling Foreign Investment - RFA
China has said it will take steps to “stabilize” foreign investment amid plummeting investment inflows in recent years, but analysts say the measures announced Monday by Premier Li Qiang are unlikely to result in genuine policy changes.
Inbound foreign direct investment, or FDI, fell by 13.7% in 2023 to US$163 billion, according to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, although the country remained the number four destination for investors in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund.
10. Iran Alerts UN To Trump Threat Of Force, Says It Will Defend Itself - Reuters
Iran alerted the United Nations on Tuesday to what it described as “reckless and inflammatory statements” by U.S. President Donald Trump threatening the use of force, and warned that “any act of aggression will have severe consequences.”
In a letter to the UN Security Council, Iran’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani referenced remarks made by Trump in interviews with the New York Post and Fox News, in which he spoke of a preference to do a deal to stop Tehran getting a nuclear weapon over bombing the country.
11. Japan Seeks Exemption From U.S. Steel, Aluminum Tariffs - Kyodo News
Japan requested that its steel and aluminum products be exempt from 25 percent tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, who vowed to put the penalties into effect next month, the government's top spokesman said.
Japan's U.S.-bound steel exports totaled 302.6 billion yen ($2 billion) in 2024, accounting for 1.4 percent of the total export value to the United States, while aluminum and other related products amounted to 26.4 billion yen, according to Finance Ministry data.
12. Apple Suppliers Exploring iPhone Production In Indonesia - Nikkei Asia
Multiple sources told Nikkei Asia that Apple suppliers are taking steps to potentially make iPhones in Indonesia as the U.S. company continues its efforts to have a government sales ban on its latest handsets lifted.
This move, if it materializes, would mark Apple's first-ever iPhone production in Indonesia, where it has almost no supply chain ecosystem. It would also significantly boost Indonesia's efforts to create jobs and elevate its tech manufacturing industry.
13. U.S., Britain Decline To Sign Paris AI Summit Communique - UPI
Trump administration officials balked at language calling for an "inclusive and sustainable" AI, according to Politico.
In an earlier speech, Vice President JD Vance called for less regulation over AI and embracing growth, which appeared to put him at odds with French President Emmanuel Macron. Negotiations went into Tuesday evening with 70 signees, but it was not enough for the United States and Britain to come on board.
14. North Korea Condemns 'Brutal And Ruthless Usurper' U.S. Over Trump's Gaza Takeover Plan - UPI
"The whole world is shocked by the tyrannical remarks that trample the thin hopes of the Palestinians who wish for peace and a stable life in the region," the Korean Central News Agency commentary said.
The unsigned article, carried in state-run media, condemned the "innate nature of the United States to survive through slaughter and robbery," citing not only Gaza but also the Trump administration's calls to seize control of other territories including Greenland and the Panama Canal. North Korea has no diplomatic relations with Israel and recognizes Palestinian sovereignty over almost the entire Israeli territory.
15. Sudan Releases Post-War Roadmap, Calls On Int'l Community To Support It - UPI
The announcement comes as the Sudanese Armed Forces has made significant gains against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces and president of the Transitional Sovereign Council, announced that a new government would be formed. In its statement, the foreign ministry said the roadmap establishes the "post-war phase" of the country and the resumption of "the inclusive political process that will culminate in holding free and fair general elections."
16. Measles Cases Rising In U.S., Canada - UPI Health
Measles cases are rising in the United States and Canada, primarily among the unvaccinated, according to statistics from both countries.
The highly contagious disease has been detected in the U.S. states of Alaska, Georgia, New York City, Rhode Island and Texas, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. The Canadian patients were diagnosed in the provinces of Quebec and Ontario.
17. Is It Smart To Buy Stocks With The S&P 500 Near Its Record High? Warren Buffett Has Brilliant Advice For Investors. - The Motley Fool
Warren Buffett in 2008 authored a famous opinion piece for The New York Times. "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," he wrote.
The index now trades at a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio of 38, a valuation so expensive it has only been seen during two periods since the S&P 500 was created in March 1957. At the current CAPE ratio, stocks are historically expensive. That is a sign of greed, so caution is warranted in the current market environment.
18. Experts Warn As North Carolina Pushes For Bitcoin Reserve - TheStreet
This week, North Carolina introduced a new bill that would place up to 10% of key state funds in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Industry experts, however, are urging caution on strategic Bitcoin reserves:
“Most governments today lack the depth of experience needed to operate digital assets,” said Adam Levine, CEO of Fireblocks Trust Company, a crypto infrastructure firm. He pointed out that without a robust security and custodial plan, states are potentially “putting hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars at risk.”
19. Stay Playful To Weather Tough Times, Study Advises - HealthDay News
"Playful" people differ from others in that they display "greater optimism when envisioning future possibilities," are more creative when it comes to solving problems, and attempt to "infuse quality and enjoyment into everyday activities," explained study lead author Xiangyou "Sharon" Shen.
Psychologists already acknowledge playfulness as an important personality trait, and there's even a Playfulness Trait Scale to measure it. Shen said that playful folk did not necessarily engage in different activities or do any particular activity more often. Instead, they became more deeply involved in whatever activity they were in; were more active generally; and derived more fun out of whatever they were doing.
