By Larry C. Johnson, SONAR21 | October 15, 2024
Let’s start with some facts. From August 1 to September 30, the Russians captured territory that is twice the size of the Gaza Strip:
The Russian Armed Forces captured:
1) 468 sq. km of territory In September
15.6 sq. km/day
2) 351 sq. km of territory In August
11.3 sq. km/day
The Gaza Strip is 41 kilometres (25 miles) long, from 6 to 12 km (3.7 to 7.5 mi) wide, and has a total area of 365 km 2 (141 sq mi).
And we are not talking empty farm land. The Russians are in the process of enveloping the Ukrainian troops that invaded Kursk and have captured scores of villages and towns along the line of contact in the Donbass. The Western press is struggling to come to grips with the reality of what is happening on the ground. As I noted in my October 11 article, Why Is the Pentagon Now Pushing the False Narrative About Russian Casualties?, the Ukrainians continue to exaggerate the number of Russian casualties and Western officials accept the bunk as true. The fantasy tale was presented in a Politico article, Russia Gains Ground in Ukraine, But at Steep Cost.
While Paul McLeary, the Politico writer, tries to put the best spin on Ukraine’s dire situation, he is forced to concede some uncomfortable facts:
Russian gains have been the most sustained and significant since its initial invasion in February 2022, and Moscow appears to be betting that casualties are sustainable, at least in the short-term.
“They have attempted to overcome [Ukrainian] fires with massive maneuver,” a military official said. “If you look at the salient around Pokrovsk the number of Russian forces there is astounding. It’s tens of thousands of forces that they’ve put into that very small area. As you know, when you have that many forces in a very small area … it’s a target rich environment” for the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainian government has rushed troops to fill gaps in their front lines, but have continued to fall back since the summer, unable to fully counter the Russian assaults.
It is a simple math problem. Russia is pounding Ukrainian positions with drones, FABS (guided-bombs dropped by combat aircraft), and artillery before Russian ground troops assault those positions. This tactic minimizes casualties, not the other way around. The Ukrainians, although trying to maintain cover in bunkers and trenches, only have minimal artillery, limited drones and no combat air. They lack the means to inflict mass casualties on the Russians.
Speaking of debacles, the Biden Administration leaked a stern letter it sent to Bibi Netanyahu, warning Israel to allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza:
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin informed Israel that if humanitarian aid does not enter Gaza within 30 days, the U.S. administration will be forced to activate the “National Security Memorandum” and prevent the transfer of weapons to Israel under the aid law.
Hmmm. Thirty days? This means that Biden and his team of miscreants won’t do a damn thing. This letter, in my view, is designed to try to placate the fury of Muslim American voters, who are enraged over the Biden Administration’s facilitation of Palestinian genocide. If the Biden Administration was serious about doing something, they would have told Netanyahu he had one week to rectify the situation or else. This is nothing more than crass political theater.
This kind of weakness and vacillation by the Biden national security folks will likely encourage Netanyahu to make good on his threats to hit Iran with missiles. If that happens — and I think it will before the US election in three weeks — then the United States voters will likely find themselves worrying about a dramatic escalation of the war between Iran and Israel and the direct intervention of US military forces. The people making these decisions for Biden are playing with fire and the odds are high that the United States will get burned.
Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism.
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