TIPP Tracking Day 18 – Trump And Harris Locked In A Dead Heat At 48%

With just four days left, Trump and Harris are tied at 48% as undecideds make their final choices. This fierce contest sets the stage for a razor-thin outcome. Our latest survey of 1,265 likely voters (±2.7-point margin) from October 28 to October 30 captures a race within a narrow four-point range, from Trump +2 to Harris +2. In these closing days, every move could shape the nation’s future. Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, TIPP continues to bring you the latest insights on the race.

Multi-Candidate Results

When third-party candidates are added to the mix, Harris and Trump are tied, 48.0% to 48.0%, third-party candidates barely register, with West at 1.0% and Stein at 0.9%, leaving 1.7% undecided.

ICYMI: Latest Win Probabilities – October 31

Exclusive Insights For Our Subscribers

Here’s a glimpse of the valuable insights our paid subscribers receive daily from the 2024 National Presidential Tracking Poll. Stay informed and ahead of the curve—subscribe today to access these timely updates.

Premium Insight: Behind the Numbers - Voter Dynamics Unveiled (10/26)

The chart on the next page reveals where Trump and Harris are gaining support across key demographics, measured in point shifts from the base period. Red bars indicate Trump’s gains, while blue bars show Harris’s gains, with all values displayed as positive shifts for easy comparison. Trump has made significant inroads among High School-educated voters (+13.9 points), Black voters (+8.1), and seniors aged 65+ (+8). In contrast, Harris has gained ground with voters with 'Some College' education (+6.3 points) and Independent/Other voters (+5 points). Pollster Mayur notes that the biggest shifts are education-based for both candidates.

Should Trump Supporters Panic Over the Trend Reversal?

Absolutely not, says pollster Mayur. Trump isn't expected to win the popular vote—Democrats have a built-in edge with California and New York. Texas, the largest red state, only partially offsets those. National polls reflect this imbalance, packed with blue-state voters that skew the numbers in favor of Democrats. But the popular vote is irrelevant in the electoral college. In 2020, Trump lost the popular vote by 4.5 points yet came within just 45K votes in three battleground states of winning the presidency. Some media outlets ignore this crucial fact to sell the narrative that Trump can't win. The truth? The race is still razor-close.

Here’s a comparison of 2024 vs. 2020 vs. 2016:

Today, the RealClearPolitics average of national polls shows Harris +0.9. Compare this to 2020, when on the same day, it was Biden +8.0 and in 2016, it was Clinton +5.9.
So, Harris is not doing as good as Biden and Clinton. The tightness in the national polls is also reflected in key battlegrounds.
Today, the RealClearPolitics average of battleground polls shows Trump +1.1. Compare this to 2020, when on the same day, it was Biden +4.0 and in 2016, it was Clinton +5.0.

Exclusive Insight: Campaigns Must Strategize For Diverse Voter Preferences

Our proprietary data reveals critical insights into how voters are approaching this election. A notable 15% have already cast their ballots—11% by mail and 4% by using secure drop-off locations. Looking ahead, another 14% plan to vote by mail, and another 12% intend to drop off their ballots before election day. Most significantly, over half—51%—plan to vote in person or drop off their ballots on election day. These findings underscore the need for campaigns to prepare for various voting methods.

Key Takeaway: Headwind – Better Off/Worse Off

A growing sense of economic dissatisfaction looms large. The TIPP Tracking Poll shows that 53% of Americans feel worse off now compared to their situation pre-COVID. Democrats are the most optimistic, with 51% saying they’re better off, but 68% of Republicans report being worse off. Independents largely mirror the national mood, with 55% feeling the pain. This dissatisfaction is a headwind for Harris, which Trump could exploit.

Key Takeaway: Nation’s Compass – Right Track/Wrong Track

A deep dissatisfaction with the country’s direction poses a serious challenge for the incumbents. The TIPP Poll shows that 66% of Americans are unhappy with the nation's path. Republicans (62%) and Independents (43%) express the highest levels of dissatisfaction, while even 40% of Democrats are discontent. With just 25 days left, this sentiment represents a significant hurdle for the incumbents.

For full access to detailed findings, demographic breakdowns, and key insights, subscribe to receive the complete report and enjoy 23 days of keeping you posted.

Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:

Source: Washington Post

Fortune on 2020 election results
Washington Post on 2020 election results

2016 Presidential Election:

As noted by Fox News, the IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two polls to predict President Trump's victory in 2016t, ours was the only national poll to show Trump ahead in a four-way race heading into Election Day 2016.

Media Comments on the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll for Election 2016

"The gold standard going forward." — The Hill

"IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the only major national poll in November to give Trump the lead in a race including third-party candidates." — USA Today

"Investor's Business Daily was the best poll." — Bill O'Reilly, The O'Reilly Factor

"This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right." — Investor's Business Daily

"Mayur's firm Technometrica conducts the Investor's Business Daily Poll, which was rated the "most accurate" poll of the three prior elections. Make that four." — The Star-Ledger (NJ.com)

"Almost everybody got it wrong, except Mayur." — The Record (NorthJersey.com)

"IBD/TIPP Tracking turned out to be the most accurate pollster." — Mediaite