TIPP Tracking Day 21 – Trump Edges Ahead With Two Days Until Decision Day

TIPP Staff -

With fewer than 48 hours left until Election Day, Donald Trump has inched ahead of Kamala Harris, holding a narrow 49%-48% lead in TIPP’s latest tracking poll, conducted October 31–November 2. This late surge highlights stark divides across demographics like age, education, race, and region, pinpointing where both campaigns are doubling down in these final hours. Significantly, 6% of voters report they could still change their minds, underscoring how every moment could prove decisive as the race barrels toward Election Day. Pollster Mayur notes that Harris is stuck at 48% for the ninth consecutive day. Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, TIPP continues to bring you the latest insights on the race.

Sample = 1,305 Likely Voters, Margin of Error +/- 2.9 PTS, Online survey, conducted October 31-Nov 2

Also see: Latest Win Probabilities – November 3

Multi-Candidate Results

With third-party candidates in play, Trump leads 48.6% to Harris’s 47.6%, while minor candidates West and Stein barely register at 0.8% each. About 1% are not sure.

ICYMI: Latest Win Probabilities – November 3

Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:

Source: Washington Post

Fortune on 2020 election results
Washington Post on 2020 election results

2016 Presidential Election:

As noted by Fox News, the IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two polls to predict President Trump's victory in 2016t, ours was the only national poll to show Trump ahead in a four-way race heading into Election Day 2016.

Media Comments on the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll for Election 2016

"The gold standard going forward." — The Hill

"IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the only major national poll in November to give Trump the lead in a race including third-party candidates." — USA Today

"Investor's Business Daily was the best poll." — Bill O'Reilly, The O'Reilly Factor

"This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right." — Investor's Business Daily

"Mayur's firm Technometrica conducts the Investor's Business Daily Poll, which was rated the "most accurate" poll of the three prior elections. Make that four." — The Star-Ledger (NJ.com)

"Almost everybody got it wrong, except Mayur." — The Record (NorthJersey.com)

"IBD/TIPP Tracking turned out to be the most accurate pollster." — Mediaite