TIPP Tracking Day 22 – Trump And Harris In A Dead Heat Just Before Election Day

TIPP Staff -

With fewer than 24 hours until Election Day, TIPP’s latest tracking poll shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris locked at 48%, a dead heat as both candidates make a last push to sway undecided voters. Significantly, 6% of voters say they may change their minds in these final hours, making each moment critical as the race barrels toward Election Day. The results are from the online survey of 1,411 likely voters from 11/1 to 11/3, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 points. Pollster Mayur notes that historically, undecided voters break in the final hours to support the challenger rather than the incumbent, which bodes well for Trump. Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, TIPP continues to bring you the latest insights on the race.

Sample = 1,411 Likely Voters, Margin of Error +/- 2.7 PTS, Online survey, conducted November 1-3

Also see: Latest Win Probabilities – November 4

Multi-Candidate Results: Trump Holds Slight Lead

With third-party candidates in play, Trump leads 48.8% to Harris’s 48.3%, while minor candidates West and Stein barely register at 0.7% each. Under one percent, 0.6%, are not sure.

ICYMI: Latest Win Probabilities – November 4

Want to dig deeper? Get our full analysis here.

Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:

Source: Washington Post

Fortune on 2020 election results
Washington Post on 2020 election results

2016 Presidential Election:

As noted by Fox News, the IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two polls to predict President Trump's victory in 2016t, ours was the only national poll to show Trump ahead in a four-way race heading into Election Day 2016.

Media Comments on the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll for Election 2016

"The gold standard going forward." — The Hill

"IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the only major national poll in November to give Trump the lead in a race including third-party candidates." — USA Today

"Investor's Business Daily was the best poll." — Bill O'Reilly, The O'Reilly Factor

"This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right." — Investor's Business Daily

"Mayur's firm Technometrica conducts the Investor's Business Daily Poll, which was rated the "most accurate" poll of the three prior elections. Make that four." — The Star-Ledger (NJ.com)

"Almost everybody got it wrong, except Mayur." — The Record (NorthJersey.com)

"IBD/TIPP Tracking turned out to be the most accurate pollster." — Mediaite