The final TIPP tracking poll reveals an exceptionally tight race, with Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by just 0.3 points—48.6% to 48.3%. Cornell West follows with 0.8%, and Jill Stein with 0.5%. Conducted online from November 2 to November 4 among 1,863 likely voters, the survey has a margin of error of ±2.3 points. Pollster Mayur points out that late-deciding voters often lean toward the challenger over the incumbent, potentially giving Trump an edge on the final day—a common tendency for undecided voters who harbor doubts about the sitting administration. Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, TIPP continues to bring you the latest insights on the race.
Also see: Latest Win Probabilities – November 5
Head-To-Head Results
In a direct head-to-head matchup, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a narrow 0.1-point margin, with 48.4% to Trump’s 48.3%. This razor-thin lead highlights the extraordinary closeness of the race. Additionally, 1.2% of respondents support other candidates, 1.6% remain undecided, and 0.5% prefer not to disclose their choice.
ICYMI: Latest Win Probabilities – November 5
Want to dig deeper? Get our full analysis here.
Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:
Fortune on 2020 election results
Washington Post on 2020 election results
2016 Presidential Election:
As noted by Fox News, the IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two polls to predict President Trump's victory in 2016t, ours was the only national poll to show Trump ahead in a four-way race heading into Election Day 2016.
Media Comments on the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll for Election 2016
"The gold standard going forward." — The Hill
"IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the only major national poll in November to give Trump the lead in a race including third-party candidates." — USA Today
"Investor's Business Daily was the best poll." — Bill O'Reilly, The O'Reilly Factor
"This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right." — Investor's Business Daily
"Mayur's firm Technometrica conducts the Investor's Business Daily Poll, which was rated the "most accurate" poll of the three prior elections. Make that four." — The Star-Ledger (NJ.com)
"Almost everybody got it wrong, except Mayur." — The Record (NorthJersey.com)
"IBD/TIPP Tracking turned out to be the most accurate pollster." — Mediaite
