TIPP Tracking Poll Day 3: Harris Widens Popular Vote Lead, While Trump Maintains Edge in Electoral Projections

Vice President Kamala Harris’s lead over former President Donald Trump expanded slightly in the national popular vote. According to the latest TIPP tracking poll of 1,248 likely voters conducted online from Sunday, October 13, to Tuesday, October 15, Harris now leads Trump 50% to 46%. The survey has a margin of error of +/-2.8 points. This is the third release of our 23-day tracking poll series.This is the third release of our 23-day tracking poll series. Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, TIPP continues to bring you the latest insights on the race. The survey has a margin of error of +/-2.8 points.

How Voters See Key Figures

Most Americans have formed clear opinions on President Biden, Former President Trump, and Vice President Harris. Biden’s net favorability stands at -17, and Trump’s at -10. Meanwhile, Harris is evenly split, with 48% favorable and 48% unfavorable, putting her at a net zero.

In contrast, many Americans are still undecided about U.S. Senator J.D. Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. About a quarter of people (23% for Vance and 29% for Walz) have no opinion. Vance holds a net favorability of -8, while Walz is just slightly positive at +1.

These figures highlight the contrast between well-known and lesser-known political figures during this election season.

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Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:

Fortune on 2020 election results
Washington Post on 2020 election results

2016 Presidential Election:

As noted by Fox News, the IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two polls to predict President Trump's victory in 2016t, ours was the only national poll to show Trump ahead in a four-way race heading into Election Day 2016.

Media Comments on the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll for Election 2016

"The gold standard going forward." — The Hill

"IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the only major national poll in November to give Trump the lead in a race including third-party candidates." — USA Today

"Investor's Business Daily was the best poll." — Bill O'Reilly, The O'Reilly Factor

"This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right." — Investor's Business Daily

"Mayur's firm Technometrica conducts the Investor's Business Daily Poll, which was rated the "most accurate" poll of the three prior elections. Make that four." — The Star-Ledger (NJ.com)

"Almost everybody got it wrong, except Mayur." — The Record (NorthJersey.com)

"IBD/TIPP Tracking turned out to be the most accurate pollster." — Mediaite