TIPP Tracking Poll Day 4: Harris’s Popular Vote Lead Narrows, While Trump Maintains Edge In Electoral Projections

Vice President Kamala Harris's lead over former President Donald Trump narrowed to three points, with 49% to Trump’s 46%. This data comes from the fourth release of the 23-day TIPP tracking poll series, conducted among 1,228 likely voters with a margin of error of ±2.8 points. Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, TIPP continues to bring you the latest insights on the race.

Key Takeaway: Nation’s Compass – Right Track/Wrong Track

A deep dissatisfaction with the country’s direction poses a serious challenge for the incumbents. The TIPP Poll shows that 66% of Americans are unhappy with the nation's path. Republicans (62%) and Independents (43%) express the highest levels of dissatisfaction, while even 40% of Democrats are discontent. With just 25 days left, this sentiment represents a significant hurdle for the incumbents.

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Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:

Fortune on 2020 election results
Washington Post on 2020 election results

2016 Presidential Election:

As noted by Fox News, the IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two polls to predict President Trump's victory in 2016t, ours was the only national poll to show Trump ahead in a four-way race heading into Election Day 2016.

Media Comments on the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll for Election 2016

"The gold standard going forward." — The Hill

"IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the only major national poll in November to give Trump the lead in a race including third-party candidates." — USA Today

"Investor's Business Daily was the best poll." — Bill O'Reilly, The O'Reilly Factor

"This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right." — Investor's Business Daily

"Mayur's firm Technometrica conducts the Investor's Business Daily Poll, which was rated the "most accurate" poll of the three prior elections. Make that four." — The Star-Ledger (NJ.com)

"Almost everybody got it wrong, except Mayur." — The Record (NorthJersey.com)

"IBD/TIPP Tracking turned out to be the most accurate pollster." — Mediaite