TIPP Tracking Poll Day 5: Race Tightens Again

Vice President Kamala Harris's lead over Donald Trump has shrunk to just two points, with Harris at 49% and Trump close behind at 47%. This data from the fifth release of the 23-day TIPP tracking poll shows that the race is anything but settled. Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, TIPP continues to bring you the latest insights on the race.

Key Takeaway: Headwind – Better Off/Worse Off

A growing sense of economic dissatisfaction looms large. The TIPP Tracking Poll shows that 53% of Americans feel worse off now compared to their situation pre-COVID. Democrats are the most optimistic, with 51% saying they’re better off, but 68% of Republicans report being worse off. Independents largely mirror the national mood, with 55% feeling the pain. This dissatisfaction is a headwind for Harris, which Trump could exploit.

Key Takeaway: Nation’s Compass – Right Track/Wrong Track

A deep dissatisfaction with the country’s direction poses a serious challenge for the incumbents. The TIPP Poll shows that 66% of Americans are unhappy with the nation's path. Republicans (62%) and Independents (43%) express the highest levels of dissatisfaction, while even 40% of Democrats are discontent. With just 25 days left, this sentiment represents a significant hurdle for the incumbents.

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Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:

Fortune on 2020 election results
Washington Post on 2020 election results

2016 Presidential Election:

As noted by Fox News, the IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two polls to predict President Trump's victory in 2016t, ours was the only national poll to show Trump ahead in a four-way race heading into Election Day 2016.

Media Comments on the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll for Election 2016

"The gold standard going forward." — The Hill

"IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the only major national poll in November to give Trump the lead in a race including third-party candidates." — USA Today

"Investor's Business Daily was the best poll." — Bill O'Reilly, The O'Reilly Factor

"This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right." — Investor's Business Daily

"Mayur's firm Technometrica conducts the Investor's Business Daily Poll, which was rated the "most accurate" poll of the three prior elections. Make that four." — The Star-Ledger (NJ.com)

"Almost everybody got it wrong, except Mayur." — The Record (NorthJersey.com)

"IBD/TIPP Tracking turned out to be the most accurate pollster." — Mediaite