US Analysts Warn China Trade Surplus Could Invite Tariffs

China’s record trade surplus in 2025 could prompt tougher trade restrictions from global partners in 2026, potentially complicating Beijing’s growth plans, according to a report by Rhodium Group.

The research firm said China’s export strength remains the main driver of growth but warned that Europe and emerging markets may push back against Chinese imports.

How much did China's economy actually grow in 2025? Most likely around 2.5-3.0%.

In our latest note, we recap China's growth story this year and look ahead to what 2026 may hold:https://t.co/ANwlPKbofl

— Rhodium Group (@rhodium_group) December 22, 2025

China’s surplus surpassed $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, driven by falling export prices and a weaker currency. Direct exports to the United States fell sharply, while shipments to the European Union, Africa, and Southeast Asia rose.

Net exports accounted for nearly 30 percent of China’s GDP growth this year, official data show. However, analysts warn this reliance leaves China vulnerable to protectionist responses. Morgan Stanley projects 2026 growth below Beijing’s likely 5 percent target.

Rhodium also flagged weak domestic demand, slowing investment, and a prolonged property downturn as risks. The International Monetary Fund has urged China to shift toward consumption-led growth to offset rising global trade tensions.

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