A proposed U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could deal a severe economic blow to Iran, according to analysis shared by sanctions expert Miad Maleki. The estimate suggests losses of about $435 million per day, combining halted exports and disrupted imports.
Iran relies heavily on Gulf routes, with over 90% of its trade passing through the strait, Maleki wrote on X. Oil exports alone, estimated at 1.5 million barrels per day, could be wiped out entirely. Petrochemicals and non-oil goods would also face major disruptions due to limited alternative routes.
1/10 The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276M/day in lost exports and disrupt $159M/day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435M/day, or $13B/month.
— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) April 12, 2026
Over 90% of Iran's $109.7B in annual trade transits the Persian Gulf. Oil/gas… https://t.co/fOwhRltQhv
Maleki, who is a senior U.S. sanctions strategist and national security leader with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, also warned that Iran’s storage capacity could be exhausted within two weeks, forcing production shutdowns that risk long-term damage to oil fields.
The analysis also highlighted risks of worsening inflation and currency collapse, with the rial already under pressure. Such a blockade could severely strain Iran’s economy, potentially limiting its ability to sustain prolonged confrontation amid ongoing tensions with the United States.
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