Global trade is rebounding this year, but tougher times may lie ahead. The World Trade Organization (WTO) raised its 2025 global trade growth forecast to 2.4%, up from 0.9% in August, citing front-loaded imports and surging demand for AI-related goods such as chips and servers.
However, the 2026 outlook was cut to 0.5%, as the full impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs takes hold and the global economy cools.
BREAKING: WTO revises #GlobalTradeOutlook: Goods trade growth forecast raised to 2.4% in 2025 but cut to 0.5% in 2026. AI product surge & frontloading boosted 2025 so far, but impact of tariffs & cooling global economy likely to set in next year.
— WTO (@wto) October 7, 2025
🔗https://t.co/sHHM4BValX pic.twitter.com/6juYi0Gyf6
Trade volumes grew 4.9% year-on-year in early 2025, driven by strong consumer demand, robust emerging markets, and fiscal support.
Asia accounted for two-thirds of global AI trade growth, underscoring its dominance in tech exports.
WTO hikes global trade forecast for 2025 — but next year doesn't look so good https://t.co/xB38xd95JP
— CNBC (@CNBC) October 7, 2025
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala credited the “rules-based trading system” for cushioning shocks but warned nations against complacency, urging them to “reimagine trade” amid rising protectionism.
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TIPP Staff
