The 2024 presidential election is still 534 days away, but the GOP's chances of winning the White House have never been brighter. The electoral map is looking favorable to the Republicans. Our analysis shows that if the GOP can win Arizona, its nominee can take the White House.
There are 538 electors based on the size of each state's congressional delegation. A tie will result in each party taking 269 votes, in which case the election will be thrown to the House of Representatives, where the GOP enjoys a slim majority. To win the White House outright, a party needs one more vote, 270.
The Electoral College math could give the GOP five additional votes.
The 2020 Census triggered changes in the number of electors in thirteen states. Texas gained two votes. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each gained one. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia each lost one.
If 2024 plays out as it did in 2020 and each party wins its respective states, the GOP will gain four electoral college votes in Texas, Florida, Montana, and North Carolina but will lose two in Ohio and West Virginia. The net result: GOP will gain two votes.
The Democrats will gain two electors in Oregon and Colorado but will lose seats in California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania, resulting in a net loss of 3 votes.
Combining the above two will mean the GOP will gain five new electors.
GOP governors can help tilt the election to their nominee.
In America, the states run federal elections. Every aspect of the election, including redistricting maps, election processes regarding early voting, in-person voting, mail-in ballots, drop boxes, and counting rules and methods, is decided at the state level. Governors, therefore, wield extraordinary power by leveraging their party infrastructure, in close races, to help tilt the election to their presidential nominee.
In our analysis, we concede that the Democrats, helped by their unique ability to accommodate mail-in ballots to ensure a victory, will win Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. But the GOP has a good chance in other states.
Virginia. In 2020, the Virginia governor's mansion was run by a Democrat. Candidate Joe Biden won Virginia by a massive ten percentage points, the best performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944. Just a year later, Virginia voters, frustrated by the performance of the Democrats at both the federal and state level, handed the governor's mansion to Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, who enjoyed a 57% favorable rating in a March poll. Virginia will fall into the GOP column if the GOP nominee in 2024 can run on Youngkin's coattails and 2021 strategy.
Georgia. In 2020, candidate Joe Biden won the state by just 0.23% and 11,779 votes, although it had a popular GOP governor, Brian Kemp, who was constantly being needled in the national media by sore loser Stacy Abrams of the 2018 governor election. Kemp pushed through a series of electoral process changes for the 2022 election, which brought the entire leftist elite, including the media, to Georgia to falsely claim that "Jim Crowe 2.0" rules were back. In a rematch, Kemp convincingly beat Abrams, in one of the fairest elections in the country. We predict that the GOP will win in Georgia in 2024.
North Carolina. In 2020, President Trump carried the state by a convincing 1.34% margin, although the state was run by a Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, who continues to be in office. Republican Ted Budd won the Senate seat in 2022 by more than three percentage points, so the odds that the GOP will win the Tar Heel state are high.
Assuming that the GOP will retain wins in Ohio and Florida and carry all the other states President Trump took in 2020 brings the GOP to 263 votes. Which brings the race to the Grand Canyon state.
Arizona. The state has a new Democrat governor, elected in 2022, but the 2020 election was very close. Biden ultimately won the state by some 10,000 votes over Trump, a 0.3% margin, marking the first time a Democratic presidential nominee carried Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996 and only the second time since Harry S. Truman's 1948 victory.
If the GOP nominee can campaign hard in Arizona on the issues facing Arizonans (illegal immigration, the economy, inflation, education, crime, and the Ukraine war) and not delve only into 2020 election irregularities, Arizona looks very promising for the GOP.
Arizona has 11 electoral college votes, bringing the GOP total to 275, sending President Biden permanently back to Delaware.
In conclusion, the electoral college map and governorships strongly favor a Republican victory in the historic 2024 presidential election.
Like our insights? Show your support by becoming a paid subscriber!
ICYMI: TIPP Performance - 2020
Washington Post on 2020 election results
