At the dawn of the election year, President Biden's approval rating in our January TIPP Poll stands at 36%, and the RealClearPolitics average is 40%.
President Trump beats him in most national polls, with third-party candidates weakening Biden more than Trump.
Unfortunately, President Biden does not have much to show. Bidenomics, a term initially intended to signify success, is now being retired as it is not working. Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck, as confirmed by this week's TIPP Poll and the Bankrate survey. Their wages have not grown, while the stoic Bidenflation, at 17 percent, has taken a toll on their finances. Just 34% of Americans say they’re better off than four years ago.
House Republicans are working to possibly impeach the President, the border is in chaos, and ships have to avoid the Red Sea because of constant attacks. Homelessness is increasing as a result of Bidenflation. The U.S. is the most indebted country in the world, as the nation’s debt crossed $34 trillion. The debt clock is racing at $9 billion a day, with Americans paying $1 trillion as interest to service the debt. The Debt to GDP ratio has crossed 127 percent, the highest in history.
So, what is the President’s reelection strategy?
Fear is the key.
In addition to the lawfare led by the DOJ and other prosecutors at county, state, and federal levels, the two broad themes are summarized in a recent Reuters story from last week.
To beat Trump again, as he did in 2020, Biden's team is focused on warning that Trump poses a serious threat to U.S. democracy, and that abortion and other personal freedoms are at stake. They are banking on that approach winning over independents and sparking enthusiasm among lukewarm Democrats.
That’s all? Simply stated, lawfare, milking J6, and abortion form the trifecta of Biden’s reelection strategy.
Rewind to January 2021. President Biden mentioned "unity" and "together" in his inaugural address more than a dozen times.
Today, on this January day, my whole soul is in this: Bringing America together. Uniting our people. And uniting our nation.
He promised to lead the polarized country on a healing path toward unity.
We can see each other not as adversaries but as neighbors. We can treat each other with dignity and respect. We can join forces, stop the shouting, and lower the temperature. For without unity, there is no peace, only bitterness and fury.
Fast-forward to January 2024. Here’s President Biden's tweet after the Iowa caucus.
Looks like Donald Trump just won Iowa. He’s the clear front runner on the other side at this point. But here’s the thing: this election was always going to be you and me vs. extreme MAGA Republicans. It was true yesterday and it’ll be true tomorrow.
Here's Michelle Obama reinforcing the fears:
I am terrified about what could happen because our leaders matter, who we select, who speaks for us, who holds that bully pulpit. It affects us in ways that I think sometimes people take for granted.
Don’t rely on our interpretations.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, observed on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” from the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
I wish the Democrats would think a little more carefully when they talk about MAGA. I think this negative talk about MAGA is going to hurt Biden’s election campaign. When people say MAGA, they're actually looking at people voting for Trump, and they think they're voting — they're basically scapegoating them, that you are like him. But I don't think they're voting for Trump because of his family values.
He's kind of right about NATO. Kind of right about immigration. He grew the economy quite well. Tax reform worked. He was right about some of China.
Biden’s lack of leadership and irresponsible and biased conduct of the media fosters polarization among Americans.
The proof is in the pudding. The latest TIPP Poll shows that only one-third (36%) trust the media, while a staggering 59% do not. As we recently noted in an article titled "Chickens Come Home To Roost For Legacy Media":
Everywhere one looks, media companies are laying off employees, offering buyout packages, and shrinking their operations to align rising costs with dwindling revenues.
Coverage biased toward the left primarily appeals to Democrats and liberals. The media often aligns with Democrats in portraying Trump as a draconian dictator, to the extent that even sensible individuals with high gravitas like Jamie Dimon have to chastise its hyperbolic coverage.
The Unity Index
In keeping with its tradition for innovation, TechnoMetrica developed the Unity Index, a barometer of the country's unity based on the question: In general, would you say the United States is Very United, Somewhat United, Somewhat Divided, or Very Divided?
It is the only objective measure that tracks unity in the United States.
The chart shows the answers to the question from the TIPP Poll of 1,401 adults completed in early January 2024.
73% say the nation is divided. Notice the intensity of the response in the chart. Nearly one-half (42%) believe the country is very divided, and another 31% think it is somewhat divided.
Independents feel it the most (83%), followed by Republicans (77%) and 61% Democrats.
We converted the raw responses to a compact index to compare the various demographic segments and track unity over time.
The index ranges from 0 to 100. Above 50 indicates unity, while below 50 indicates division. 50 is a neutral value.
This month marks the 34th month of the index's tracking.
Notice the following in the chart below.
The overall unity index, the green line, has stayed below 50, in the negative zone, for the entire Biden’s term (34 months). The same applies to both Republicans and independents.
Democrats posted below 50 readings for 30 of the 34 months.
The chart below shows the unity index by year. Notice that the overall index has deteriorated during the Biden presidency:
- 34.9 for 2021
- 30.5 for 2022
- 30.2 for 2023
- 29.3 for January 2024
Behind The Numbers
In January, all 36 demographic groups we track are below 50.0 and believe we live in a divided country.
Only six groups crossed the index level of 40.0.
The groups that feel extreme division in the country are:
- White women (20.2)
- Age 65+ (20.3)
- Married women (20.6)
- Independents (21.5)
- Some College (21.9)
- Suburban (22)
The table below presents the Unity Index for 36 demographic groups we track for January 2024.
America’s Future
The extreme polarization is already taking a toll on the country. In an exclusive Newsmax/TIPP Poll conducted in November, 82% of Americans are concerned about the future of America’s democracy. Americans of all ideologies and political affiliations share the concern.
Mr. President, we agree with you. Without unity, there is no peace, only bitterness and fury. You must lead by example. Rather than fomenting division, how about a change of tone, a return to the spirit of your inauguration day?
Call off the DOJ attack dogs. Have state, county, and federal judges suspend all deliberations against Trump. And face him person-to-person at the ballot box.
That would be the first step if you intend to fulfill your commitment to unify the country, as you expressed in your inauguration speech.
Who knows, the country may even forgive you for your failure during the past three years. And you may even win reelection.
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