During the 2020 campaign, a confident Joe Biden appeared in an interview with Charlamagne tha God on 'The Breakfast Club' and said, 'Well, I tell you what, if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t Black.'
Democratic politicians like Biden have taken Black voters for granted.
Biden got 87% of the Black votes in 2020, which helped him win key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin for electoral college victory. Kamala Harris wants to be sure she can perform as well as Biden and is trying.
At her Atlanta rally, Harris's campaign had Megan Thee Stallion twerk and prance to highlight the campaign's joy. More recently, Harris suddenly adopted a southern drawl in her speech. But are these tactics working? Recent TIPP Polls suggest otherwise.
First, let us take our national poll, which shows that only 69% of Blacks support her compared to 89% for Clinton in 2016 and 87% for Biden in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump's support among Blacks has surged from 8% in 2016 to 24%, underscoring Harris’s uphill battle. 2016 and 2024 results are from CNN's exit polls.
The same pattern is repeated in our recent battleground polling for American Greatness in Wisconsin and Michigan.
In Wisconsin, Trump’s support increased from 6% in 2016 to 24% in 2024. At the same time, support has declined twenty points from 92% for Clinton in 2016 to 72% for Harris in 2024.
In Michigan, Clinton got 92% of Black votes in 2016, while Harris gets only 82% in 2024. Meanwhile, Trump's support increased from 6% in 2016 to 14% in 2024.
A significant share of Blacks are color-blind and will base their vote solely on policies and performance. They associate Harris with the failed Biden-Harris policies, not her identity, and many are increasingly attracted to Trump. This trend mirrors the growing discontent around specific issues.
Black Americans Key Concerns
Many Black Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck and are struggling to make ends meet. Thirty-seven percent picked the economy as the country's most important issue, followed by immigration and border security at 22 percent.
Health care (20%) and homelessness (19%) are also significant concerns. Seventeen percent cited three issues: abortion, crime, and home affordability.
Due to high food prices, which increased 21% under Biden-Harris, nearly 20% are skipping meals. The chart below shows how Black Americans are coping with the situation.
Further, Black Americans are experiencing elevated financial stress. The RCM/TIPP Financial Stress Index, the only measure of its kind, for Black Americans in September is 58.7, 4% higher than its historical average of 54.8.
Immigration
Nearly two-thirds of Blacks say that migrants crossing the border have been a problem in their communities. About a third (37%) view it as a very big problem, and another 27% as a moderate problem.
The unintended consequence of uncontrolled immigration is hurting Democrats. We saw it starting to hurt Biden, and now it’s hurting Harris, too.
Cities are redirecting resources to migrants, slashing budgets, and drastically lowering the quality of life. Crime is rising, and much of it is linked to migrants. Just last week, police reports showed that illegal immigrants accounted for 75% of arrests in midtown Manhattan for assault, robbery, and domestic violence.
Black voters who left Biden over this issue see it as part of the Biden-Harris track record—and they’re not likely to return to Harris’s fold.
Job Sensitivity
Forty-four percent of Black households have at least one person looking for full-time employment, compared to 34% of White households (job seekers).
Also, 36% of Black households are concerned about a member losing their job in the next 12 months, compared to 30% for Whites (job concerned).
We classify any household that fits either of these definitions as job-sensitive. A majority (57%) of Black households are job-sensitive, compared to 46% of Whites.
The Biden-Harris track record over the past 3+ years does not ease their concerns about meeting basic economic needs.
Trump’s Outreach
Trump has been actively reaching out to Black voters, and the results are showing. Both candidates have track records, which helps Blacks realize they enjoyed better economic times under Trump than Biden-Harris. Further, Trump’s growth message resonates with Black voters: 87% consider American economic growth important, 84% consider American prosperity important, and another 88% value opportunity.
While Trump’s message of economic growth has been consistent and clear, Harris’s joy-based campaign is not delivering what Black voters want. They are looking for authenticity and results, not gimmicks and fake joy.
Biden-Harris Administration’s Lawfare
Biden’s lawfare and numerous Trump convictions at the state and federal levels have helped develop a bond between some Black men and Trump. They share the fact that they are unfairly targeted using the law.
Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) noted this dynamic:
As an African American born and raised in the Deep South who had concerns about our justice system as it relates to race, I'm now seeing it play out from a partisan perspective.
The Black men-Trump connection has developed over the past few years, and it is difficult for Harris to break this connection and get them back into her fold.
Black Women
Harris’s position on abortion may not be acceptable to a segment of Black women voters. For example, Madeleine Brame, a Black woman who appeared as a guest on The Ingraham Angle Show on Fox News, says:
I'm not supporting Kamala Harris because I don't believe in the continued genocide of black babies in the womb through abortion, where she's pushing tooth and nail, even to the third trimester. You know, I don't believe in that, and I don't support that, and I don't believe that most of the, especially black women in the black community support that.
Unyielding To Pressure
MSNBC’s Joy Reid, took to TikTok and recently warned Black voters:
You're going to look real crazy being on the other side of that line, particularly as a person of color, but really as anyone who claims to have any connection to the culture, you're gonna look real weird and real lonely on that side.
Sorry, Ms. Reid. Good try. But for many Blacks, skin color is no criterion. They won’t vote for Harris just because you, Obama, or Oprah say so. They want to decide who is the best based on track record and their policies. That’s the new trajectory. They want real results—not endorsements from the elite.
According to the Daily Mail, Deborah Mattinson, one of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's top advisers, will reportedly travel to the U.S. to brief the Harris 2024 campaign on the party's winning strategy. Hopefully, Mattinson encourages Harris to be authentic and win back disaffected Black voters.
With Trump gaining ground and Black voters increasingly looking for results over rhetoric, Harris faces an uphill battle to regain their trust. Democrats may find their longstanding support among Black voters eroding significantly in 2024.
