Betting Markets Have Trump Running The Table Days Before Election
By Christina Lewis, The Daily Signal | October 30, 2024
As Americans prepare to head to the polls on Nov. 5, some voters are putting their money where their mouth is by placing bets on the election’s outcome.
With less than a week left before the election, Polymarket, a betting platform and the world’s largest prediction market, gives former President Donald Trump a two-thirds chance (66.3%) of winning back the presidency. Vice President Kamala Harris has a one-in-three chance (33.8%).
Behind the overall odds of becoming president are Polymarket’s odds for Trump and Harris in the major swing states. Trump, according to Polymarket, is the favorite to win five of the six tracked swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Michigan is currently a dead heat, while Polymarket does not include North Carolina among the swing states on its webpage.
Polymarket users are placing their bets on Trump in the state of Nevada, home to the gambling mecca of Las Vegas. Currently, the betting platform has Trump with a 66% chance of winning the Silver State, while Harris has a 34% chance.
The polls, however, show the race much closer. Real Clear Polling averages show Trump winning by only 0.7 of a percentage point. Why, then, do the betting markets seem fairly confident of a Trump victory there?
For one thing, Nevada is home to one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, at 5.6%. The state’s economy is still reeling from the havoc caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. Trump is planning to address the housing crisis and inflation when he visits the state for a rally in Henderson on Thursday afternoon.
In Arizona, Trump is seen as having a 74% chance of winning, whereas Harris has just a 26% chance. However, Real Clear Polling averages show Trump winning by 1.3 percentage points. Trump won the state in 2016 by 3.6 points, but lost to Joe Biden in 2020 by 0.3%.
Polymarket shows Trump with a 73% chance of winning Georgia, Harris with a 27% chance.
Shelby Arnette moved to Georgia four years ago and has noticed that she and her husband are receiving different political messaging that seems to be targeted at their respective genders.
“I have seen different signs and things specifically advertising toward women to vote Democrat to have reproductive rights,” Arnette said.
There’s a smaller margin between Trump and Harris in Wisconsin, according to Polymarket, with a 55% chance of a Trump victory there and a 45% chance of Harris winning the state. In 2016, Trump won the state by 0.7%, but lost to Biden by 0.7% in 2020.
Polymarket shows a dead heat in Michigan, 50% to 50%. The state is still up for grabs, as Democrats are targeting women on the issue of abortion, while Trump is banking on support from the state’s autoworkers.
Trump invited a group of Arab and Muslim leaders to speak at his rally in Novi, Michigan, on Saturday.
“We as Muslims stand with President Trump because he promises peace, not war,” one speaker at the rally said. “We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine. The bloodshed has to stop all over the world, and I think this man can make it happen.”
As all eyes turn to Pennsylvania, seen by many as the most important of the swing states, Polymarket shows Trump with a 62% chance of winning the state, with Harris trailing at a distant 38%. But again, Real Clear Polling averages put Trump in the lead by a much smaller margin—0.4 of a percentage point.
Pennsylvania resident Ruth Howard moved to the Keystone State from Oregon a few years ago. She said that she thinks Pennsylvania will play a pivotal role in the presidential election.
“I knew it was important to vote in [Oregon], but then coming to Pennsylvania, I feel like there’s a little more opportunity that my vote will make a difference, that it could help swing the state or politics in particular,” Howard said.
Christina Lewis is a member of the Young Leaders Program at The Heritage Foundation.
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