Dead Cat Bounce Or Lasting Shift?
Harris expands her lead to four points after the debate.
If one were to believe the mainstream media, presidential candidate Kamala Harris trounced Trump and walked away with a win from the debate stage. But numbers don’t lie. While it is true that Harris did improve her poll numbers, even the established names in the press concede that the gain is ‘small’ and Trump’s favorability numbers have not taken a significant hit.
A comparison of the before-and-after horse race numbers presents a clear picture. TIPP conducted its online post-debate poll from Wednesday to Friday this week, with 1,721 registered voters participating.
Before the debate, Harris held a three-point lead over Trump, 48% to 45%, in the TIPP Poll. Post-debate, her lead expanded to four points, with Harris now leading Trump 47% to 43%.
With multiple candidates in the mix, Harris’s lead over Trump before the debate was four points, 47% to 43%, which stayed the same. Her lead over Trump is now 45% to 41%.
Here are a few stats about the debate from the poll.
Two-thirds (66%) of registered voters watched the debate, 34% did not. By party, the viewers were 73% Democrats, 65% Republicans, and 62% independents.
Low Expectations Game
Harris is famous for her Venn diagrams, yellow school buses, falling coconuts, cloud storage, and word salads.
She faced low expectations going into the debate, with many wondering if she could handle an unscripted event.
One-half of debate watchers say that the debate made them see Harris more favorably, compared to 28% for Trump.
Additionally, she received assistance from the moderators, who neither fact-checked nor asked follow-up questions.
Low expectations for Harris, combined with the moderators' assistance and Trump's lack of usual bluster, contributed to Harris's being viewed more positively than Trump across multiple measures.
Over half (57%) gave Harris good grades for her performance, with 35% giving her an A and another 22% a B. On the other hand, only 34% viewed Trump favorably, with 19% giving him an A and 15% a B.
All things considered, Harris beats Trump by 58% to 32%. She wins among Democrats (94% to 4%) and independents (57% to 28%). Trump wins with Republicans 69% to 17%.
The “Halo Effect” of beating low expectations spills over to even performance related to specific issues. TIPP Poll surveyed respondents on 16 issues.
Harris performed better on 13 of the 16 issues, while Trump performed better on two issues: border and national security. The two contenders tied on one issue – implementing a strong foreign policy.
Meanwhile, our testing of candidates’ traits showed that Harris left Americans with a good impression, besting Trump on all seven personality traits.
Will The Bounce Last?
Can one debate performance expunge her lackluster record of the past three years? A debate is a stage for candidates to showcase their cause, charm, and commitment. Trump ended Biden’s illustrious political career on television in just a few hours. The second presidential debate, albeit the first between Trump and Harris, went in her favor.
While a few Americans view her in a favorable light, the lead is too narrow to call the elections yet. For instance, TIPP just completed a survey in North Carolina, a battleground state where voting has started. Results show Trump convincingly breaking out with a three-point lead. Similar results are seen in a Trafalgar survey conducted during the same period (after the debate). Even if one were to concede that Harris outshone the former president on debate night, the aura she created must last another two months for her to reach the White House.
In the coming days, we will release more data from the survey about the moderators and other aspects of the debate.
Related Data:
Editor’s Note: In response to feedback on our recent headline, Dead Cat Bounce or Lasting Shift?, we refer you to the following stories from the media. The term isn’t exclusively reserved for left-leaning outlets.
‘The Most Entertaining Dead-Cat Bounce in History'- The Atlantic
Opinion | Biden is Still a Political Albatross - Politico