As we approach election day, the priorities of Black voters—both men and women—are coming into sharp focus.
In the 2024 election cycle, every vote could tip the balance. Trump, who fell just 45,000 votes short in three swing states in 2020, is now making surprising gains among Black voters. In 2016, exit polls showed that Trump had just 8% support from Black voters, which increased to 12% in 2020. However, in a striking shift, the latest TIPP Tracking Poll shows Trump now earning 17% of the Black vote.
Our recent MaxDiff analysis and survey results reveal which issues matter most to these crucial voting blocs. The insights not only highlight the key concerns but also provide a roadmap for campaigns aiming to connect with these voters.
Over the past eight days, our MaxDiff module, embedded in the TIPP Tracking Poll, collected insights from over 4,000 respondents, providing a wealth of actionable data.
What Is MaxDiff Analysis?
MaxDiff (Maximum Difference) analysis is a survey technique used to measure preferences. Instead of simply rating issues on a scale, respondents are asked to choose the most important and least important issues from a set of options. This forces tough trade-offs, helping us determine which issues matter most. For instance, if the economy scores 40 and climate change receives 10, voters consider the economy four times more important than climate change. This provides a clearer picture of what drives voter decisions.
MaxDiff produces ratio-based scores that show the relative importance of each issue. This method is more accurate than traditional ranking because it captures the strength of preferences, not just the order.
Our analysis also produces the Share of Importance—the percentage of attention or concern given to each issue across respondents. Let’s examine the distinct differences and commonalities between Black men and Black women in their issue priorities.
Top Concerns for Black Men
For Black men, the economy emerges as the dominant issue, with a MaxDiff score of 8.97—indicating high importance. Concerns around health care and gun violence closely follow it health care and gun violence.
MaxDiff Scores for Black Men:
- Economy – 8.97
- Health Care – 7.36
- Gun Violence/Gun Control – 6.69
- Homelessness – 6.45
- Home Affordability – 6.35
- Crime – 5.99
The scores for the 20 issues we used in our research add up to 100. The relative importance for the issues is the average of scores across the 282 Black men. Using this data, one can say that the Economy, which receives a score of 8.97, is over twice as important as climate change, which gets 4.06, or over four times more important than the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Clearly, economic concerns dominate the list for Black men, but safety and housing also feature prominently. Let’s see how these priorities compare when looking at Share of Importance.
When we look at the Share of Importance, the economy is even more striking, taking 14.6% of the issue importance. Abortion and gun violence rank just below, signaling major areas of concern that any campaign targeting Black men should address.
Share of Importance for Black Men:
- Economy – 14.6%
- Abortion – 8.7%
- Gun Violence/Gun Control – 7.7%
- Election 2024 – 7.3%
- Threats to Democracy – 6.5%
- Health Care – 6.3%
This data suggests that economic security and safety are key themes that campaigns should prioritize when addressing the Black male electorate.
Now let’s turn to Black women, who, while also focused on the economy, balance their priorities with other key issues.
Top Concerns for Black Women
Black women, while also concerned with the economy, show a slightly different pattern of priorities. The MaxDiff scores highlight gun violence and health care as close competitors to the economy for the most important issue.
MaxDiff Scores for Black Women:
- Economy – 8.18
- Gun Violence/Gun Control – 8.12
- Health Care – 7.62
- Homelessness – 6.68
- Crime – 6.55
- Home Affordability – 6.41
Looking at the Share of Importance, the economy again ranks highest at 11.8%, but gun violence (10.4%) and abortion (9.2%) are close behind, signaling more attention to personal safety and reproductive rights.
Share of Importance for Black Women:
- Economy – 11.8%
- Gun Violence/Gun Control – 10.4%
- Abortion – 9.2%
- Election 2024 – 8.7%
- Home Affordability – 7.0%
- Homelessness – 6.4%
It’s clear from this data that Black women are balancing economic concerns with a sharp focus on health and safety issues, particularly around gun control and reproductive rights.
Key Takeaways for Campaigns
1. Economic Security Is Key—But Not Alone
The economy is the leading concern for Black men and women, but it is far from the only issue. Campaigns should consider policies that address wage growth, affordable housing, and economic equality, especially given the focus on these issues from both Black men and women.
2. Safety and Social Issues Matter
Both groups share concerns about safety and gun violence, but Black women place greater emphasis on abortion and health care, while Black men focus more on crime and homelessness. Addressing these concerns with clear, actionable plans will be essential for gaining their support.
3. Personal Health Care and Housing Are Top Priorities
Health care is a key issue for both groups, and affordable housing is not far behind.
Interested in More Detailed Insights or Other Segments?
Few campaigns are leveraging data as precisely as this. By using our MaxDiff insights, you can gain a crucial advantage by addressing exactly what voters care about most.
We are ready to share the insights from our comprehensive MaxDiff analysis, which surveyed 4,200 respondents and reveals issue preferences across key voter segments. Whether you're targeting swing voters, suburban communities, or critical groups like Black men and Black women, our data offers powerful, actionable insights that you can use as input for your campaign strategy.
Unlock the potential of data-driven decisions and refine your messaging to address the issues that matter most to voters. Reach out to us via our contact form to see how our insights can help you stay ahead of your competition and build a winning campaign. Don’t miss this opportunity to harness the power of voter insights. Contact us today and build your path to success.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. TIPP Simulation Results: Trump on the Brink of Victory—But Harris Could Still Pull Off a Surprise - TIPP Insights
TIPP utilizes three models to forecast election outcomes:
- Polling-based Model—derived from RCP national polling averages
- Betting-based Model—sourced from Polymarket odds
- Combo Model—equally weighting both polling and betting data
With the election too close to call, TIPP’s simulations offer valuable foresight. After running 1,000,000 trials using our models, the results show just how tight the race is.
- Polling-based Model:
Trump 271 – Harris 267
Trump win probability: 54.3% | Harris: 44.4% | Tie: 1.25%
- Betting-based Model:
Trump 280 – Harris 258
Trump win probability: 71.7% | Harris: 27.3% | Tie: 1.0%
- Combo Model:
Trump 276 – Harris 262
Trump win probability: 63.0% | Harris: 35.7% | Tie: 1.26%
2. TIPP Tracking Poll Day 11: Harris Extends Slim Lead To 3 Points In Heated Race - TIPP Insights
Harris’s Fourth Straight Day of Gains as Race Tightens
3. Turkey Strikes PKK Sites After Fatal Attack Near Ankara - BBC
Turkey's government says its military struck sites on Wednesday night in Iraq and Syria linked to Kurdish militant group the PKK, after blaming it for an attack near Ankara that killed at least five people.
Various videos from the attack earlier on Wednesday show at least two people firing guns around the entrance of Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), which is located some 40km (25 miles) outside the capital. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, in which 22 people were injured.
4. Biden Announces $50bn G7 Loan To Ukraine Backed By Frozen Russian Assets - Al Jazeera
President Joe Biden said that the United States will cover $20bn of the loan, which “will be paid back by the interest earned from immobilized Russian sovereign assets”.
“In other words, Ukraine can receive the assistance it needs now, without burdening taxpayers,” Biden said in a statement. Russia has rejected efforts to confiscate its assets, describing them as “21st-century piracy”.
5. Putin Touts 'Multipolar World Order' At BRICS Summit - AFP
"The process of forming a multipolar world order is underway, a dynamic and irreversible process," Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the official opening of the summit.
About 20 leaders, including those from China, India, Turkey and Iran, are gathering in the central Russian city, where they will address topics such as developing a Brics-led international payment system and the conflict in the Middle East.
Moscow sees the platform as an alternative to Western-led international organizations like the Group of Seven.
6. Chinese Aircraft Carrier Sails Through Taiwan Strait - AFP
Taipei's defense chief said a Chinese aircraft carrier group sailed through the Taiwan Strait a day after Beijing held a live-fire exercise near the self-ruled island.
China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory and has ramped up military activity around the island in recent years to pressure Taipei into accepting its claims of sovereignty.
7. India's Modi, China's Xi Seek To Boost Ties At BRICS Summit - D.W.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first face-to-face meeting in Kazan, Russia, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit.
The meeting followed an agreement earlier in the week between the two countries to patrol their disputed border, four years after a military standoff heightened tensions between the two.
8. China, Hong Kong Companies Tap Middle East As Western Ties Sour - Nikkei Asia
From delivery services to financial products, many Chinese and Hong Kong businesses have stepped up operations in the Middle East amid growing geopolitical tensions with the West.
The region's growing population and favorable industrial policy are among the pull factors as Western markets, in particular the U.S., appear challenging after Washington began imposing sanctions on Chinese entities under national security laws.
9. IMF Warns World To Avoid Global Trade War - BBC
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has told the BBC that a broad-based trade war between the world's major economies could cause the world economy to contract by the size of the combined French and German economies.
This is because concerns are heightened ahead of the possible re-election of Donald Trump.
Trump says he plans to introduce a universal tax or tariff of up to 20% on all imports into the U.S., while the European Union is already planning retaliation if Washington goes ahead with the new levy.
10. Hungary: Orban Compares EU To USSR, Urges People To 'Resist' - D.W.
At a rally to commemorate the 1956 Hungarian Uprising, Hungary's Viktor Orban compared the EU to the Soviet Union and criticized the bloc's support for Ukraine in the face of Russia's ongoing invasion.
"Do we bow to the will of a foreign power, this time from Brussels, or do we resist it? I propose that our response should be as clear and unequivocal as it was in 1956," he told thousands of people at a rally in Budapest.
11. Russia Pays North Korean Soldiers About $2,000 A Month: South’s Spy Agency - RFA
Russia will pay North Korean troops about US$2,000 per month each, South Korea’s spy agency said, as the United States announced there was evidence that the troops were in Russia.
Moscow's salary would represent an enormous increase.The Ukrainian government-run news platform United24 reported that most of the money would likely "remain with the state."
12. Kim Jong Un Visits Missile Bases, Calls For Nuclear Deterrence Against U.S. Threat - UPI
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected strategic missile bases and called for bolstering nuclear deterrence against the "ever-increasing threat" posed by the United States, state-run media reported.
The official Korean Central News Agency reported that Kim was accompanied on the visits by his sister, Kim Yo Jong, and high-ranking political official Kim Jong Sik. "The long-term threats urgently demand that the DPRK more definitely bolster its war deterrence and take a thorough and strict counteraction posture of the nuclear forces," he said.
13. Halloween Candy Binges Can Overload Gut Microbiome, Spooking Helpful Bacteria - UPI Health
Sugar and other ingredients in Halloween treats can cast a sickly spell on the trillions of microorganisms in your gut, collectively known as the gut microbiome.
Concentrated sugar, saturated fat, and additives in candy can throw things into disarray by feeding inflammatory microbes that weaken the gut barrier—the protective lining that separates the microbiome from the rest of the body.
Once the gut barrier is breached, even friendly microbes can stir up inflammation, causing health issues ranging from overweight to obesity, infections to autoimmune disease, and mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's.
Poll: Most Americans Stressed About Election, Future Of Nation - HealthDay News
The Stress in America poll, conducted by the American Psychological Association (APA), found that 77% of adults are stressed about the nation's future and 69% are worried about the upcoming election.
The economy is another significant source of stress, with 73% reporting worry over it. About 72% said they are worried the election results could lead to violence. More than half (56%) believe the election could be the end of democracy in the United States.
