This electoral simulation report, our first of the season, assesses the likelihood of victory for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris based on three models: polling data, betting markets, and a combination of both information. The results are derived from 1,000,000 simulations conducted across battleground states, using RealClearPolitics polling averages and Polymarket betting odds as inputs.
Polling-Based Results
This section details Trump’s and Harris’s probabilities of victory based on polling data across battleground states. The simulation model ran 1,000,000 trials using polling averages for each state.
Betting Market-Based Results
This section presents the probabilities of victory based on the betting market odds. These results reflect market sentiment and expectations rather than polling data.
Combined Polling & Betting Market Results
This section combines polling data and betting market odds to generate a composite probability of victory for each candidate. The two data sources are weighted equally.
The 2024 race is much tighter than in 2016 and 2020. Trump has an advantage right now since he has a history of underperformance in polls due to silent voters in many battleground states. In the coming days, we will share with you what-if analysis, such as whether Trump overperforms by 1% or 2% in battleground states, etc., along with a daily tracking poll, the first release of which is tomorrow.
The 2024 TIPP National Presidential Tracking Poll Is Here!
As the 2024 election approaches, you deserve to know where the race stands—day by day. That’s why we’re bringing you the 2024 TIPP National Presidential Tracking Poll, brought to you by talent on loan from God. If you’ve followed us before, you know TIPP’s track record: we’ve been the most accurate poll over the last five presidential elections, and we’re bringing you the same reliability this year.
Here’s the deal:
- 23 daily releases: Starting Monday, October 14 through Monday, November 5.
- Online Methodology: Each release is based on daily analysis using 1,500+ respondents from across the nation who participated over the past 3 to 4 days, ensuring up-to-date, real-time insights.
- Demographics: We’re cutting it by 21 key categories—everything from Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West), Gender, Age, and Education to Income, Race, and Party Affiliation.
- Head-to-Head and Multi-Candidate Matchups: See how things look for likely voters with clean, easy-to-read cross-tabs. No data dumps, just straight-up clarity.
All this for $179.
Ready to wake up each morning knowing where things stand? Sign up here.
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