From Reflection To Retreat: RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index Drops Sharply In November

Consumer sentiment weakened in November, as the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, the first monthly read on U.S. consumer confidence, declined from 48.3 in October to 43.9 - a sharp 4.4-point (9.1%) drop. This marks the third consecutive month the Index has remained below the neutral 50 benchmark, signaling continued pessimism.

November’s Economic Optimism Index reading of 43.9 is 10.7% below its 298-month historical average of 49.2.

Investor confidence fell 3.1% (1.9 points) to 58.6 in November, while non-investor confidence dropped 10.4% (4.4 points) to 38.0.

The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is the first monthly measure of consumer confidence. It has established a strong track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators issued later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. (From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this Index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.)

RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,418 adults from October 28 to 31 for the November Index, using TIPP’s panel network; results have a range of 0–100, with readings above 50 indicating optimism, below 50 signaling pessimism, and 50 considered neutral. A more detailed methodology is available here.

The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In November, all of them declined.

• The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, dropped 6.5%, from 42.8 in October to 40.0 in November.
• The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, declined 9.0% from its previous reading of 55.6 in October to 50.6 this month.
• Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary RCM/TIPP measure of views on the effectiveness of government economic policies, weakened to 41.1 in November from 46.4 in October, a 11.4% decline. The component had crossed above the neutral 50.0 mark for the first time in August, ending a 47-month streak in pessimistic territory that began in September 2021; however, it slipped back below 50.0 in September.

Party Dynamics

Since President Trump’s election as the 47th President, Democrats’ confidence has plunged to 29.3, Republicans’ confidence has soared to 63.0, and independents, after briefly turning optimistic for the first time in nearly five years, have slipped back to 38.0.

Investor Confidence

Respondents are considered "investors" if they currently have at least $10,000 invested in the stock market, either personally or jointly with a spouse, either directly or through a retirement plan. One-fourth (27%) of respondents met this criterion, and 67% were classified as non-investors. We were unable to determine the status of six percent of respondents.

Investor confidence fell 3.1% (1.9 points) to 58.6 in November, while non-investor confidence declined 10.4% (4.4 points) to 38.0. The confidence gap between investors and non-investors widened from 18.1 to 20.6 points.

Momentum

The Optimism Index fell sharply to 43.9 in November, below its three-month average of 47.0. The Six-Month Outlook slipped to 40.0, well under its three- and six-month benchmarks. The Personal Financial Outlook eased to 50.6, also trailing its short-term averages, while confidence in federal policies declined to 41.1, remaining below recent trend levels. Taken together, the data reflect a broad loss of momentum across key indicators.

Demographic Analysis

The number of groups in the positive zone indicates the breadth of optimism in American society.

This month, only four of the 21 demographic groups we track are in positive territory, with scores above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. For comparison, there were six in October, seven in September, and 10 in August.

In the immediate aftermath of the election, the number of groups in the optimistic zone had jumped from eight in October 2024 to 18 in November, indicating widespread optimism.

None of the groups improved on the Index, compared to nine in October, three in September, and 20 in August.

Economic optimism levels for 18 of 21 demographic groups are lower in November 2025 than the historical average over the 298 months since we began tracking in February 2001.

RCM/TIPP also releases our companion index, known as the RCM/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index, the only metric that tracks the financial stress felt by Americans on a monthly basis.

The higher the number, the more the stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress, with 50 considered neutral.

The RCM/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index increased 1.9 points (3.0%) from 63.3 in October to 65.2 in November, reflecting a rise in financial stress among Americans. This reading remains 7.9% above the long-term average of 60.4, underscoring elevated financial strain. The last time the Index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1.

RealClearMarkets website will release the next report at 10 a.m. EST on Tuesday, December 2

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