Germany’s Last-Chance Election

By Michael Bröning, Project Syndicate | Feb 21, 2025

With German voters clearly demanding comprehensive change, the far right has been capitalizing on the public's discontent and benefiting from broader global political trends. If the country's democratic parties cannot deliver, they may soon find that they are no longer the mainstream.

BERLIN – With anti-establishment forces on the rise, the next German government may be the last one that can counter the mounting challenge from the far right before it is too late. Yet the snap federal election on February 23, following the collapse of Germany’s “traffic light” coalition – comprising the Social Democrats (SPD), the Free Democrats (FDP), and the Greens – is occurring against a backdrop of eroding public trust in politics as usual.

After years of economic stagnation, high levels of irregular immigration, and a series of violent attacks by illegal immigrants, opinion polls reflect growing and widespread discontent. The public’s top concerns have shifted from issues such as climate change to the economy, security, and immigration. Voters clearly want comprehensive change; but will they get it?

Voter enthusiasm has been notably absent. Never before have the leading candidates been so unpopular. And the discontent is not confined to politicians’ popularity ratings. Studies also show growing disillusionment with political institutions across the board. This may partly explain why so many voters remain undecided – with as many as one-third having not made up their minds just a few days before the election. Given such widespread uncertainty, a surprise outcome is a distinct possibility.

The frontrunner and favorite for the chancellorship, with 30% approval, is Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Since former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s departure from politics, Merz has steered Germany’s main center-right party further rightward in an effort to win back voters who had defected to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Whether this strategy has worked or merely legitimized far-right talking points is a matter of debate. But there is no question that the AfD is capitalizing on widespread anger, with its approval rising above 20% – a record for a party that German authorities suspect of extremism.

Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party, the SPD, has been polling at just 16%, which would represent its worst election result in more than a century. The SPD is only narrowly ahead of the Greens, who poll around 14%.

Owing to Germany’s 5% parliamentary threshold, the fate of several smaller parties hangs in the balance. The far-left Die Linke, the pro-business FDP, and the new left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are all polling close to this critical level. Depending on their performance – including their ability to secure direct mandates from select constituencies – the next German parliament could include as few as four or as many as seven parties. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this level of unpredictability has invited disconcerting comparisons to the notoriously unstable interwar Weimar Republic.

In terms of political mandates, the next parliament could either represent a historically low proportion of voters, or it could be deeply fragmented, featuring an unprecedented number of potential coalition partners. With all the major parties continuing to rule out cooperation with the AfD, the most likely scenario is either a CDU-led coalition with the SPD or a CDU-led coalition with the SPD and the Greens. But a minority CDU government is also possible as a last resort, though this would represent a dramatic shift away from political normalcy.

German pundits interpret each of these options as a prudent continuation of the “firewall” against the anti-democratic far right. But with voter discontent so widespread, fragmentation and polarization carry their own risks. Lacking acceptable partners on the right, Merz, if he wins, will have to cobble together a coalition across deep ideological divides, somehow translating a public mandate for conservative policies into a coherent agenda with partners from the left.

Certainly, the chancellor is the one who determines policy. But junior coalition partners in Germany have a track record of influencing coalition agreements far beyond what their numerical strength would suggest. The Greens’ role in the last government was a case in point.

The next government therefore may struggle to be the decisive agent of change that many Germans hope for. While any coalition is likely to agree on reforming Germany’s restrictive “debt brake” to allow for much-needed investments, reaching a sustainable consensus on other key issues – from energy and immigration to social security and gender policies – will be far more challenging.

Yet the stakes could not be higher. In the past year, the AfD secured an election victory in one of Germany’s 16 states, finished second in two others, and made strong gains in the European elections. In eastern Germany, the party has firmly established itself as the strongest political force. With US Vice President J.D. Vance and Elon Musk openly supporting the party, AfD’s leaders justifiably feel like they have the wind at their back.

Germany’s mainstream parties have consistently failed to convince voters to reject the far right, and this election could be their last chance to turn the tide. Democratic forces must find a way to address the country’s economic stagnation, unresolved immigration challenges, and growing voter disaffection. Voters will be won back only with convincing solutions, not with rhetoric or scare tactics. If Germany’s “establishment” parties fail to deliver this time, they may not be the establishment for much longer.

Michael Bröning, the author, most recently, of Vom Ende der Freiheit (Dietz, 2021), serves on the Basic Values commission of Germany’s Social Democratic Party.

Copyright Project Syndicate

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