As the media hypes up the Harris-Walz campaign, scrubs damaging content from their pasts, and actively enables a rebranding of both leaders as moderates, the so-called "joyful campaign" is about to face a rough landing.
The joyful meme attempts to portray a more sunny vision of America and mask the rather glum picture that the Trump-Vance campaign paints. While polls show that the Democrats are energized by Biden's departure from the ticket and are embracing the historical candidacy of a much younger woman of color, extrapolating this moment to a state of joy is a stretch. There's not much joy in the country, and the Biden-Harris administration cannot walk away from its record of horribly mismanaging the country's affairs.
There's not much joy in the economy. In December 2019, under President Trump, the U.S. economy was booming. The unemployment rate was low, around 3.5%, indicating a strong job market. Economic growth was steady, with GDP expanding at a moderate pace. Consumer spending, a vital driver of the economy, was robust, and businesses were investing and hiring. Inflation was relatively low, which helped maintain consumer purchasing power. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was around 3.7%. America had just turned to become energy-independent for the first time in more than 60 years.
Under Biden-Harris, the unemployment rate is rising, at 4.3%, which triggered last week’s most resounding stock rout since Black Friday in October 1987. Mortgage rates are above 7.0%. TIPP CPI prices have risen nearly 20% since Biden took office. Food prices have increased by over 21%. Nearly 22% are skipping meals. Rents have skyrocketed, and car loan delinquencies have increased. Americans are hurting in the heartland - and this is not a joyful moment at their dinner tables.
There's not much joy in the inner cities. Extraordinary levels of illegal immigration, nearing 18 million people, have overwhelmed city finances, straining the ability to provide essential services to taxpayers. Petty crime has risen, and some liberal states, such as California, are taking advantage of a recent Supreme Court order to clean cities of tents set up to house the homeless. Riding a subway in New York or a bus in Chicago or Houston is no longer safe.
There's not much joy in knowing that America's global standing has suffered immensely. The disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal under Biden-Harris, which resulted in the death of 13 members of our armed forces and saw the Taliban's return to power in Kabul, set back America's global standing significantly.
America's unrelenting support of Ukraine and reckless interference to scuttle a possible peace agreement just two months after the Russian invasion have now extended the conflict into the third year, with hundreds of thousands killed and Ukraine in deep disarray. With more than $185 billion committed, Ukraine continues to lose ground. In recent weeks, Ukraine has taken the offensive against Russia by invading it with Western weapons, a red line that Biden-Harris had established but now shrugs off. NATO is now dangerously close to war with Russia.
Meanwhile, in Israel, American hostages are still held by Hamas. Israel's punishing offensive has destroyed all of Gaza and killed tens of thousands of people. Israel's attacks against Iran have invited its ire. Many Middle Eastern nations view America as a co-conspirator in Israel's military strategy.
The Biden-Harris foreign policy has driven Russia and China closer, repeatedly declaring a partnership without limits. Saudi Arabia abandoned a 50-year agreement to stick with the dollar for its oil trades and is moving closer to Iran and China. North Korea signed a technology transfer agreement with Russia in return for weapons and mortars.
There's no joy overall regarding America's direction. Our latest TIPP poll, which surveyed 1,488 Americans in early August, shows that nearly two-thirds (65%) are dissatisfied with the country's direction. Most Republicans (83%) and independents (72%) expressed dissatisfaction. Just over one-half (57%) of Democrats are satisfied.
Going back to 1972, the right track - wrong track polling data has been an excellent predictor of presidential election results. When the wrong track number was higher than 55%, the incumbent lost. When the wrong track number was less than 50%, the incumbent won reelection (Clinton, 1996; Bush, 1988; Reagan, 1984; and Nixon, 1972).
Rather than addressing the causes of Americans' severe stress and anxiety, Harris continues to campaign with rock stars like Bon Iver of the Indie Folk band and Megan Thee Stallion to attract large crowds and mask Americans' pain under her "Joyful Warriors" theme. She repeats the same campaign speech word for word, reading off a Tel-e-Prompter. The extraordinarily scripted Harris-Walz campaign finds no joy in speaking to an adversarial press corps. She hasn't even spoken to the friendly press, promising reporters that she would do an interview by the end of the month.
With Trump returning to X and a live stream interview with Musk that garnered more than 1.3 million live participants (and millions more consuming the conversation through a recording), the contrast is clear as Trump points out the terrible Harris-Biden record. It is a turn of events that is bringing no joy to Harris-Walz.
