The Obama intelligence community’s claim that Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized dirty tricks to try and help Donald Trump win the 2016 election was based on "one scant, unclear and unverifiable fragment of a sentence from one of the substandard [intelligence] reports," according to a just-declassified report that had been locked away in a CIA vault.
Nevertheless, former CIA Director John Brennan ordered agency analysts to use the claim in the Intelligence Community Assessment issued during the Obama administration’s final days – even though the ICA itself noted that how the information on Putin's plans was obtained was “not explicitly clear.”
A 46-page report by the House of Representatives released Wednesday found that the source of the claim about Putin – reportedly a Russian defector living in Northern Virginia described as “anti-Trump” – merely speculated to Brennan about something he had been told by somebody else: namely, that Putin was "counting on" Trump winning.
ICA participants interpreted the informant's phrase "counting on" several different ways, the report said. Many NSA and CIA officials viewed "counting on" as meaning the same thing as "expected," which is much different than the language – Putin "preferred" Trump – Brennan's five handpicked drafters used in the ICA.
The congressional review determined that "the ICA did not cite any [classified] report where Putin directly indicated helping Trump win was the objective." (Emphasis added.)
No Corroborating Intelligence
The report then drops a bombshell: "The ICA judgment on Putin's thoughts about helping candidate Trump does not stand if [Brennan's] single interpretation of the fragment [from the tip that Putin was 'counting on' Trump winning] is wrong, because there is no other intelligence corroborating it."
The 2019 report, which investigated the spycraft that went into the highly classified and restricted version of the ICA, found that the Obama intelligence community’s assessment of Russia’s intentions changed sharply after Trump’s surprising victory.
On the eve of the 2016 election, Brennan sent a "Fusion Cell" memo to Obama summarizing all the most secret, compartmented intel gathered on Trump and Russia. According to the House report declassified and released by DNI Tulsi Gabbard on Wednesday, that memo " made no mention of Putin 'aspiring' for a Trump victory." Although the Russian defector had shared his thoughts about Putin with Brennan in July, the CIA director’s Nov. 6 memo concluded, "Putin expected [Clinton] to win."
But then in early December, after Obama ordered a new assessment, Brennan dusted off the informant's second-hand hearsay, which had been shelved as unreliable. The CIA director, who had previously worked for Obama in the White House, suddenly insisted it underpin the new conclusion about Putin's motives.
"The major 'high confidence' judgment of the ICA rests on one opinion about a text fragment with uncertain meaning," the House report found. "This text – which would not have been published without [Brennan's] orders to do so – is cited using only one interpretation of its meaning and without considering alternative interpretations," in violation of Intelligence Community Directive 203. One alternative was that Putin was "counting on" Trump winning the primary and nomination at the GOP Convention that July, just two weeks after the informant provided the tip, not the general election in November 2106.
Rebuking Brennan
The House Intelligence Committee report, whose chief author was retired Army Col. Derek Harvey, determined from a series of interviews in 2018 and 2019 with CIA analysts at Langley that Brennan ordered drafters to use the specious report from the Russian informer without following analytical standards approved by President Obama's intelligence czar James Clapper in 2015.
The House report singled out Brennan for rebuke, questioning his "character" and "ethics," while suggesting he misled not only the public but also policymakers, lawmakers, and even many of his fellow intelligence officers. Gabbard said Wednesday she has turned the declassified report over to the Justice Department along with a criminal referral on Brennan. The FBI and DOJ have launched an investigation into Brennan and former FBI Director James Comey for possible perjury. They are also subjects of a broader conspiracy probe.
Brennan, who could not be reached for comment, has strongly defended his work. Requests for comment from Comey and his attorney went unanswered.
Harvey and other investigators spent hundreds of hours inside a highly secure room called a SCIF at CIA headquarters poring over the raw intelligence materials that supposedly backstopped the ICA's conclusions. In an exclusive interview with RealClearInvestigations, he said it became clear, after closer inspection, that the raw information the informant provided lacked credibility. “There really was no evidence that Putin supported Trump,” Harvey said.
Even so, Brennan as well as Comey, who also handled the informant, pushed to include his tip in the ICA to back the judgment Putin worked to help Trump win the election, all the while concealing their star source's identity, background and reliability from most of the participants involved in the crafting of the ICA.
"They knew he was not reliable and they tried to hide access to him," Harvey said. "They knew he had bad sources. This stuff was weak."
It was so weak that Brennan insisted analysts reference a since-debunked dossier funded by Clinton's campaign as a bullet point in the main body of the ICA to support the Putin-helped-Trump conclusion. This judgment was the most radioactive finding in the ICA and laid the foundation for several investigations of Trump and several of his advisers for allegedly "colluding" with Russia. A special counsel found no evidence that any of them conspired with Russia.
In the main body of the highly classified ICA, the bullet point supporting the key Putin-Trump judgment referred to a detailed summary of the dossier, without mentioning it was underwritten by the Clinton campaign: "For additional reporting on Russian plans and intentions, please see Annex A: Additional Reporting from an FBI Source on Russian Influence Efforts."
The "FBI source" was the retired British intelligence officer Christopher Steele, whose employer, Fusion GPS, was on the Clinton payroll. And the "additional reporting" was nothing more than Steele’s dossier, which alleged a raft of easily dispelled rumors about Trump conspiring with the Kremlin to steal the election from Clinton.
Suppressing Dissent
The House report quoted an unnamed senior intelligence officer who said he and two senior CIA officers argued with Brennan that the dossier should not be included in the ICA "at all." Brennan reportedly refused to remove it, and when confronted with the dossier's many flaws, Brennan responded: “Yes, but doesn't it ring true?"
The report discovered that Brennan "personally directed" that the CIA informant's tip underlying the key ICA conclusion that Putin helped Trump not be circulated in formal Intelligence Community channels. And Brennan only briefed the ICA team orally about it, raising suspicions he "tailored his message to different officials" to convince dissenters the tip was sound.
What's more, the House review found that Brennan made sure only a handful of analysts, mainly his handpicked authors of the ICA, were allowed to see the raw source reports out of the more than 250 people who participated in the ICA project.
On Dec. 20, 2016, during the review process, career CIA officers removed the defector’s tip from the first draft of the ICA – only to have Brennan "countermand" their decision and reinsert it in the final draft of the report.
"We don't have direct information that Putin wanted to get Trump elected," a senior CIA operations officer said he told Brennan, along with another senior colleague, according to closed-door testimony he gave House investigators. He argued that "political judgment" should have been "eliminated" from the ICA.
Right after Obama ordered the ICA on Russia in early December 2016, Brennan ordered the CIA to publish new human source intelligence reports, including the Russian informant's, which contained "flawed information," yet they were used as foundation to support the ICA's central claim that Putin helped Trump win.
Sketchy Source
Brennan's informant is believed to be Oleg Smolenkov, who previously worked in the Russian Embassy in Washington and later as a government foreign policy adviser in Moscow, before moving back to the D.C. area in early 2017.
Brennan said his source could not be revealed because Putin might have him executed. However, reporters easily found Smolenkov living in a six-bedroom home in Stafford, Va., listed in his and his wife's real names.
It's not known if Smolenkov was paid for his information. The CIA and FBI declined to comment.
The highly classified version of the ICA did not fully identify Smolenkov, referring to him in "abbreviated" form. It described him as "an established source" but with only "secondhand access" to Kremlin information. That is, he was only repeating what an unnamed source had told him.
Then, in describing the "raw intelligence" he provided, the ICA conceded that it had no insight into Smolenkov's own source: "The exact circumstances in which the subsource obtained the information on Putin's plans were not explicitly clear."
Explaining why NSA dissented from the key Putin conclusion, former NSA Director Adm. Mike Rogers argued the human source it was based on "did not have direct access" to insider information about Putin. Also, he added, "I didn't see multiple sources."
Foreign press outlets have noted that Smolenkov "would not have direct access to secret information at either the Russian Embassy in the U.S. or while working for the presidential administration in Moscow."
Yet Smolenkov was also Brennan's source for the ICA claim that Putin ordered allegedly hacked DNC material to be leaked to WikiLeaks.
"The established source with secondhand access provided us our only specific information on Putin's order to pass collected material to WikiLeaks," the highly classified version of the ICA stated.
He was also the source for "the reported role of the [Russian] Federal Security Service (FSB) hacking operations related to the U.S. election," the classified ICA said.
Harvey, the lead author of the explosive congressional report, told RCI that in addition to the 46-page review declassified by the Office of National Intelligence, the House panel also produced a 17-page condensed classified version for members of Congress – including Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff and Eric Swalwell, who continue to speculate that Trump is compromised by Putin – plus a 200-page version with additional footnotes, as well as other supporting material.
Paul Sperry is an investigative reporter for RealClearInvestigations. He is also a longtime media fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. Sperry was previously the Washington bureau chief for Investor’s Business Daily, and his work has appeared in the New York Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Houston Chronicle, among other major publications.
The story was published in RealClearInvestigations today - original article link
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Ukraine: Third Round Of Talks Ends In Istanbul - D.W.
According to media reports, the Ukrainian and Russian delegations concluded their negotiations in Istanbul by agreeing to carry out another prisoner exchange. The Russian state news agency TASS reported that the talks lasted around 40 minutes.
Moscow and Kyiv have agreed to exchange 1,200 prisoners of war each during peace talks in Istanbul, a Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said after the talks.
2. Russia Seeking To Create ‘Buffer Zones’ In Ukraine, Says Kremlin - Al Jazeera
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the comments during a briefing, signalling that Russia had no intention of de-escalating its war on Ukraine following a brief meeting between delegations in Istanbul that lasted just 40 minutes.
3. EU Chief Says Ties With China At 'Inflection Point' - BBC
EU-China relations have reached an "inflection point", European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told her Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at a one-day summit in Beijing.
Xi urged EU leaders to "properly manage differences", saying "the current challenges facing Europe do not come from China". During a meeting in Beijing's Great Hall of the People, Von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa called for both sides to find "real solutions".
4. European Union Has The Votes To Impose Retaliatory Tariffs On U.S. - UPI
European Union countries have expressed broad support for one round of 30% retaliatory tariffs if a trade deal with the United States is not reached.
The European Commission is spearheading the plan, which would see $110 billion in U.S. products get 30% tariffs, two diplomats told POLITICO. Not all products will get the full 30%. The only member country to vote against the tariffs was Hungary.
5. Israel Brings Delegation Home From Gaza Ceasefire Talks To Discuss Hamas Response - Reuters
The Israeli Prime Minister’s office thanked mediators for their efforts and said the negotiators were returning home for “further consultations.” Earlier it said Israel was reviewing the response from Hamas.
Sources familiar with the negotiations in Qatar said Israel’s decision to bring its delegation back home did not necessarily indicate a crisis in the talks. A senior Hamas source told Reuters that there was still a chance of reaching a Gaza ceasefire agreement but it would take a few days because of what he called Israeli stalling.
6. U.S. Envoy Witkoff Says Withdrawing From Gaza Talks, Considering ‘Alternative Options’ - AFP
Steve Witkoff announced Washington was joining Israel in pulling negotiators back from Gaza peace talks in the Qatari capital, accusing Hamas of not “acting in good faith.”
Witkoff said Washington would now “consider alternative options to bring the hostages home and try to create a more stable environment for the people of Gaza. It is a shame that Hamas has acted in this selfish way.”
7. Iran Defends ‘Unshakable’ Right To Enrich Uranium Ahead Of Key Talks - AFP
Iran reaffirmed its right to enrich uranium, saying it was “unshakable,” on the eve of key talks with European powers threatening to reimpose nuclear sanctions.
Friday’s meeting, set to take place in Istanbul, will be the first since Israel’s mid-June attack targeting key nuclear and military sites in the Islamic Republic sparked a 12-day war. “Especially after the recent war, it is important for them to understand that the Islamic Republic of Iran’s position remains unshakable, and that our uranium enrichment will continue,” said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
8. Syria To Sign 44 Agreements Worth Nearly $6 Billion With Saudi Arabia- Al Arabiya
Syrian Information Minister Hamza al-Mustafa announced that Syria is set to sign 44 agreements with Saudi Arabia, with a total estimated value of around $6 billion.
His remarks came during a press conference held on the sidelines of the Syrian-Saudi Investment Forum in Damascus. Al-Mustafa said the agreements signed at the forum are expected to create 50,000 jobs.
9. Deadly Clashes Erupt Along Border Of Cambodia, Thailand - RFA
Armed clashes broke out between Thai and Cambodian soldiers along a disputed border region leaving at least 12 people dead, an escalation in a long-simmering conflict that had grown more tense in recent weeks.
The 500 mile long boundary between Cambodia and Thailand has been a source of contention for decades, with ancient temples and historical claims frequently igniting diplomatic friction.
10. Starmer And Modi Sign $8bn India-UK Trade Deal - BBC
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has signed a free trade deal with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in a multi-billion pound export boost.
UK cars and whisky will be cheaper to export to India and Indian textiles and jewellery cheaper to export to the UK under the agreement. The deal took three years to reach and also commits to a new India-UK plan to tackle illegal migration. India accounts for about 2% of the UK's goods trade.
11. Kim Jong Un Calls For 'Actual War' Training By Combat Units - UPI
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called on the military to ramp up combat and artillery training to prepare for "coping with a war anytime and destroying the enemy in every battle without fail," state-run media reported.
Kim made the remarks while overseeing an artillery firing contest among units of the Korean People's Army, the official Korean Central News Agency said. The contest called for artillery units to fire at offshore targets after simulating a night march and sudden combat deployment. Kim "expressed great satisfaction over the contest that was conducted like an actual war," KCNA said.
12. Japan Gov't Panel Approves Human Embryo Creation Using iPS Cells - Kyodo News
A Japanese government panel broadly agreed to allow the creation of human embryos using eggs or sperm derived from pluripotent stem cells such as iPS cells, but only for research purposes into matters such as infertility and hereditary diseases.
According to a report compiled by the expert panel on bioethics, the culture period of such embryos would be limited to a maximum of 14 days, as with conventional fertilized egg research, and implantation into a human or animal uterus would be prohibited. The latest move raises ethical challenges as the implantation of an embryo into a uterus could potentially lead to the birth of a human being.
13. Irish Media Regulator Warns X Over Age Verification For Adult Content - UPI
"Based on an initial review of the X platform, we cannot see evidence of measures taken to comply with this age assurance requirement," Ireland's media regulator Coimisiún na Meán said in a statement.
The country added new online safety rules to video-sharing platforms to keep minors away from pornographic content, promotion of self-harm, suicide, eating disorders, dangerous challenges and violent content.
15. Working Longer Won't Save Your Retirement, Expert Warns - Yahoo Finance
For years, working longer has been promoted as the best way to shore up your retirement — especially if you're behind on savings.
Economist Teresa Ghilarducci, professor at the New School and author of "Work, Retire, Repeat," argued that this idea that we could all just work longer to make up for retirement savings gaps is false.”
For people in their 50s or 60s, she recommends a financial reality check. Start by estimating your expected retirement income and subtract 20%. Then, estimate your expenses and add 20%. If there's a gap, Ghilarducci recommends trying to work longer, if possible, cutting expenses, and consulting a fee-only financial adviser.
16. Four-Day Work Week Benefits Workers And Employers, New Study Shows - Popular Science
New research bolsters the argument that the solution isn’t necessarily to focus on improving your mindset, getting a better night’s sleep, or simply sucking it up. It’s switching to a four-day work week.
The evidence is presented in a study published on July 21 in the journal Nature Human Behavior. According to nonprofits like 4 Day Week Global (4DWG), a three-day weekend provides even better conditions not just for workers, but for the businesses themselves. Employees who participated in the study cited less stress and feelings of burnout, as well as a general improvement to their physical and mental wellbeing.
