TEL AVIV, Israel — We may be on the verge of greater peace and stability than we have seen, or even imagined, in any of our lifetimes. But we're not there yet.
I haven’t been sleeping much.
It starts with an (intentionally) obnoxious screech on your phone that overrides all your “leave me alone” settings, and harangues you that a missile alarm is coming. The radar and satellite tech behind this disruptive howl is almost magical, but in the moment, no one cares.
Then the promised air raid sirens sound all around: you have 90 seconds to reach a bomb shelter.
Fortunately, there’s a bomb shelter in my building. Some aren’t so lucky: they run down the block to public shelters, or to Tel Aviv’s new subway, which was built with this exact scenario in mind.
The attacks come in waves of an hour or two.
Imagine having a baby that wakes you up all day and night, except instead of a baby, it’s a homicidal Islamist regime, and instead of wanting to be changed or fed, it wants to kill you.
Israel has the most advanced, multi-layered missile defense system in human history, but it’s only about 88% effective - and that remaining 12% takes out entire apartment buildings. Iran already claimed its first victims last night: a woman in her 40s was killed, and dozens more were injured. And that’s just in Israel: Iran is also firing on seven Arab countries, including on the (civilian) international airports in Dubai, Bahrain, and Kuwait. It therefore makes no sense to fear “escalation” into a “regional war”: Iran has already “escalated,” and all of its targets are now supporting the U.S./Israeli operation.
Fortunately, actual damage has been relatively anticlimactic compared to Iran’s colorful promises of a “severe, decisive and regret-inducing punishment.” Much of Iran’s offensive weapons are being destroyed on the ground, and the launches have been mostly intercepted.
Israelis see war like how a college fraternity pledge sees vomiting: it’s not pleasant, but sometimes it has to be done, and when it’s over, you’re better off for having done it.
Why?
As the poet said, “Let me count the ways.”
1. Iran is developing nuclear weapons.
This isn’t some Iraq-era claim of “WMDs” - we know this is true because (among other reasons) Iran essentially says so. The regime very publicly insists on enriching uranium up to levels that have no possible use other than making warheads, all while paradoxically claiming “peaceful purposes.” It’s like admitting you bought a gun but then claiming you got it just to help you change diapers - it doesn’t even make sense.
And if all that weren’t enough, Iran hides its “peaceful” nuclear program hundreds of feet under a mountain. Make of that what you will.
2. Iran is also developing ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) capable of reaching the United States. We know this because (again) the regime says so. A lot. They brag about it. This is not a question mark.
3. Iran’s terror proxies have killed thousands of Americans, Israelis, Europeans, and Arabs, including the Beirut barracks bombing that took the lives of 220 US Marines, and the unimaginable October 7 Massacre in Israel. Claiming that the work of proxies isn’t “really” Iran’s doing is like hiring a hitman and then claiming that you didn’t “personally” murder anyone.
4. Of course, the greatest victims are the Iranian people, 80% of whom want to overthrow the regime, after 47 years of unimaginable suffering. This regime murdered over thirty thousand of its own people just last month, most for protesting, some for using Star Link terminals.
We seem to forget that military might can be used appropriately and effectively.
For every nightmare of intervention, such as Iraq or Afghanistan, there are also success stories, such as Libya, Kosovo, and most recently, Venezuela. And this isn’t even “intervention,” this is self-defense. The regime’s (by now potentially deceased) President Masoud Pezeshkian declared in December, “we are in a full-fledged war with America, Israel, and Europe,” even as Iranian officials continued to scream “Death to America” in the halls of Parliament, and on the streets.
And Iran puts its money where its mouth is: backing up its homicidal rhetoric with…actual homicide. Lots of it.
Iran is now spreading a distorted history, claiming that all of its problems can be traced to America. That isn’t true: it’s a psyop, designed to weaponize our democracy against us. One can debate whether America should have helped affect a coup in Iran in 1953, but the leadership America helped bring to power back then (the “Shah”) is the very same leadership whose return the Iranian people are now risking their very lives to demand (the Shah’s son, Crown Prince in exile, Reza Pahlavi). America and the Iranian people are completely aligned in this, and cheers and celebrations met yesterday’s strikes.
Genocidal maniacs have a way of telling us exactly what they plan to do: we ignored Hitler in the run-up to World War II, we ignored Al-Qaeda in the years before 9/11, and we now ignore Iran at our peril.
But we’re not ignoring Iran.
In the very first minutes of this war, which Israel has code-named “Operation Lion’s Roar,” Israeli forces took out much of Iran’s top leadership, including the near-mythical “Supreme Leader” Ali Hosseini Khamenei, the world’s longest-reigning dictator. Then, in lockstep coordination with US forces, the two allies targeted Iran’s weapons, its visible symbols of regime power, its command and control, and its leadership.
Millions of Iranians not only want this, but they are organized, they are prepared, and they are strong. The people of Iran are ready to take back their country and institute a new, organized government. It is entirely possible that Iran, the Middle East, and the world at large are on the verge of greater peace and stability than we have seen, or even imagined, in any of our lifetimes.
But we aren’t there yet, and we need the united support of all our allies and our entire democracy in order to succeed.
Where Americans Stood On Iran On The Eve Of Operation Epic Fury
Fielded in the days immediately preceding Operation Epic Fury, the TIPP Poll, in collaboration with former deputy national security advisor and TIPP Insights Editorial Board member Mark Pfeifle, captured a snapshot of American public opinion at a pivotal moment. The findings show strong backing for sanctions and international isolation, majority support for increased U.S. military deployments as a deterrent, and a plurality favoring a combined strategy of diplomacy and pressure.
editor-tippinsights@technometrica.com
