Illegal immigration remains a major issue in this election. While the media has tended to downplay its seriousness, even as millions crossed into the U.S. uninvited, the issue is one that could well decide the election, now less than two weeks away.
The latest I&I/TIPP Poll of 1,491 adults, taken from Oct. 2 to Oct. 4, asked voters in particular about strong evidence that a significant number of those crossing into the U.S. have criminal records or have ties to criminal gangs, drug cartels, or even terrorist groups.
The poll, with a margin of error of +/-2.6 percentage points, asked respondents the following three questions:
1. How closely are you following the recent news report about the release of illegal immigrants with criminal convictions, including homicide, into the U.S. under current immigration policies?
2. How concerned are you about the release of illegal immigrants with criminal convictions, including homicide, into the U.S. under current immigration policies?
3. How safe do you feel in your community given the recent federal data on illegal immigrants with criminal convictions living in the U.S.?
A final question about the much-debated building of a physical wall along the border was also included:
4. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the statement? The U.S. must complete/expand walls along the U.S.-Mexico border?
Let’s start with question No. 1. Some pundits have suggested the immigration and crime nexus has been overblown, especially by conservative media, and that it’s dying as an issue.
But, as the I&I/TIPP Poll shows, that’s not the case.
Among those responding to the poll, 67% say they’re following the release of illegal immigrants with possible criminal backgrounds into the U.S. either “very closely” (31%) or “somewhat closely” (36%). Just 29% overall said they were watching “not very closely” (19%) or “not at all” (10%).
The overall total wasn’t partisan. A majority of both major political parties, along with independents and third-party voters, claimed to be watching closely. For Democrats, it showed solid majorities watching the issue carefully.
For Democrats, it was 63% closely, versus 34% not closely, while for Republicans it was 83% to 16%. Independents weren’t far behind, at 59% to 36%.
It’s one thing to pay attention, another to be actually worried. For the second question, possible voters were asked how concerned they were about the release of criminals and gang members in the U.S.
As it turns out, they’re very concerned: 73% said they were either “very concerned” (49%) or “somewhat concerned” (24%), while just 21% expressed they were either “not very concerned” (13%) or “not at all concerned” (8%).
The third question asks people to gauge how safe they feel given “recent federal data on illegal immigrants with criminal convictions living in the U.S.”
The answer: Roughly two in five reported feeling either “not very safe” (22%) or “not safe at all” (16%). A majority of 55% said they still felt “very safe” (23%) or “somewhat safe” (32%).
But on this question, unlike the others, there were sharp partisan differences.
Among Democrats, a hefty 78% said they felt safe, versus just 17% who said they didn’t. A 53% majority of independents said they felt safe, compared to 36% who said they didn’t. However, Republicans sharply diverged: Just 36% said they felt safe, while 53% (again, a majority) said they didn’t.
In the final question, about finishing or expanding the wall between the U.S. and Mexico, it may come as a surprise that Americans overwhelmingly favor finishing former President Donald Trump’s wall construction project to enhance border security.
The numbers tell the tale: 67% of all Americans favor finishing the wall, compared with just 24% who don’t. Even among Dems, 57% want the wall completed, versus 36% who don’t. That compares to 87% of Republicans who want the wall, with just 8% saying no. Among indie voters, 61% said “yes, build,” compared to only 27% on the “no, don’t build” side of the question.
Lest you think this is a situation where races and ethnicities are sharply divided, as some have suggested in calling the wall “racist,” there is significant agreement among all of the major groups tracked by I&I/TIPP. Among white Americans, 68% agree with building the wall, while 23% disagree. That compares with 65% of black Americans, with 24% saying don’t build.
But surely Hispanic voters oppose the wall. After all, most of those crossing (though not all) are from Latin American countries. But in fact, 56% of Hispanic voters support the wall, with 29% opposing it.
Turns out that building the wall to boost border security is one of the main things virtually all Americans agree on.
It’s not surprising. Scanning news headlines in recent months and years, one sees a dizzying number of stories highlighting crimes, sex trafficking and random violence committed by those who entered the U.S. illegally.
In a letter to Rep. Tony Gonzalez of Texas, the Biden administration admitted that there were 662,776 illegal immigrants in the U.S. who were either convicted criminals or had charges pending in their home countries, but were allowed to stay.
According to economist John R. Lott Jr.
Of those cleared by ICE, 13,099 have convictions for homicide, and another 1,845 were facing criminal charges. Some 9,461 have convictions for sex offenses (not including assault or commercialized sex), and 2,659 face pending charges. The convictions include other crimes such as assault (62,231), robbery (10,031), sexual assault (15,811), weapons offenses (13,423), and dangerous drugs (56,533).
About 7.4 million noncitizens are in the ‘national docket data,’ so 662,776 is 9% of the total, and if one extrapolates the numbers to the homicide rate in this country, it strongly indicates that the government is letting migrants into this country who commit murder at a rate 50% higher than the rest of the U.S. population.
The numbers are even worse than they seem. They include only those who were either caught at the border or turned themselves in, not the tens of thousands of “Gotaways,” those who weren’t caught.
“ICE processed these criminals as they entered the country, but it didn’t identify them as criminals, so it released them into the country,” noted Lott. “Now, they are just walking around freely in the United States, and no one knows where they are.”
Tragic tales of victims such as Laken Riley, a 22-year-old nursing student at Augusta University in Georgia, who was savagely beaten and strangled in February by José Antonio Ibarra, an illegal immigrant from Venezuela linked to a gang. He had previously been arrested by local and federal authorities a number of times, but never deported or even jailed for very long.
As a result of the growing list of such crimes, Americans are now learning the dreaded names of once-obscure gangs, for instance Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan gang that has actually taken over parts of a number of towns in the U.S., including Aurora, Colorado, where the violent group essentially occupied an apartment building.
Unfortunately, anti-Trump fervor on the left has led to a downplaying of the growing threat.
“Much of the mainstream media and immigration advocates, for their part, accuse conservatives of making it all up,” wrote Steve Malanga in City Journal. “Headlines like ‘The Myth of the Migrant Crime Wave,’ ‘Migrant Crime Wave Not Supported by Data,’ and ‘Immigrants Are Less Likely to Commit Crimes‘ have been common, especially after Trump made immigrant crime a 2024 campaign issue.”
The issue re-emerged during a recent interview between Vice Presidential candidate J.D. Vance and ABC’s Martha Raddatz, who said “the incidents (in Aurora) were limited to a handful of apartment complexes.”
“Martha, do you hear yourself?” Vance responded. “Only a handful of apartment complexes in America were taken over by Venezuelan gangs, and Donald Trump is the problem and not Kamala Harris’ open border?”
Will this be a problem for Joe Biden’s “Border Czar” Kamala Harris as she seeks the presidency, while simultaneously denying any responsibility for the tragedy that has occurred, with as many as 10.5 million illegal immigrants entering the U.S. since the start of Biden’s administration?
There are a number of gangs now routinely operating in the U.S., thanks to lax U.S. border controls over the last four years. In addition to Tren De Aragua, they include the Surenos, Paisas, MS-13, and 18th Street gangs, which all provide ready homes for criminal illegal immigrants.
Polls show illegal immigration remains near the top of Americans’ concerns during this election year. Given the surge in crime related to the illegal newcomers, that’s not surprising. It’s why a majority of voters want the federal government to crack down, now.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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