Prediction market platform Polymarket recorded $529 million in trades linked to the timing of US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, according to Bloomberg. An analysis by Bubblemaps SA found that six newly created accounts earned about $1 million by correctly betting the US would strike Iran by February 28.
The pattern has raised concerns about possible insider trading. Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman warned that anonymous markets tied to war can reward early access to sensitive information.
Polymarket saw $529M traded on bets tied to bombing of Iran https://t.co/ZckSwWYLyS
— TechCrunch (@TechCrunch) March 1, 2026
Earlier this year, Polysights flagged unusual betting activity tied to the future leadership of Iran, including wagers involving Ali Khamenei.
In response to ethical concerns, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said markets are structured to prevent profiting directly from death, adding that fees from related bets would be reimbursed.
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