Rooke: Harris World Should Keep Panicking. She’s Floundering In Only Election Metric That Matters

By Mary Rooke, Daily Caller News Foundation | November 01, 2024

While much has been made about 2024 election polling, the only data that truly matters in the presidential race is already looking good for Republicans.

When the Daily Caller asked Harris’ rally attendees how they felt about the 2024 elections, many said they were worried Harris would lose to Trump.

“I’m very nervous, honestly. I think Trump might win. I don’t know,” one female student from Maryland told the Daily Caller as her friend nodded in agreement.

Anything can happen between now and Nov. 5. There is no way to accurately predict who will win the presidential election. Early voting results are positive for Republicans, however, which should scare Vice President Kamala Harris and her supporters.

Traditionally, Democrats lead in early voting, but the 2024 early voting data in critical states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan show just how far Republicans have come in those states.

In 2020, Democrats held a 1.1 million-vote lead in Pennsylvania, creating a massive firewall for former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates to overcome. Republicans drastically cut that lead in 2024. The most recent early voting results show that 57% of Democrats voted in 2024 so far, casting around 894,400 ballots, according to L2 DataMapping. For Republicans, close to 33% have voted, with 515,900 votes. (Democrats Working Overtime To Turn Election Conspiracies Into Reality)

This gives Democrats just a 378,500 vote lead over Republicans, which means Democrats’ lead is down by 621,5000 votes compared to 2020. Harris won’t have the million-vote firewall that Biden had in 2020 going into Election Day.

The reason Democrats’ numbers are down in Pennsylvania is two-fold. Not only is Philadelphia underperforming for Democrats compared to 2020, but Republicans have successfully flipped five counties red in terms of voter registration, including Bucks and Luzerne County.

Republicans are currently outvoting Democrats in Arizona by 118,200 votes. In 2024, 42% of Republicans cast 672,100 ballots, while only 35% of Democrats cast 553,900 votes. Arizona’s early voting data from 2020 showed a much closer race between Democrats and Republicans. In 2020, Democrats cast 923,805 ballots, with Republicans casting 914,172 votes. Voters gave Democrats a 9,633 vote lead at this same time four years ago. Because Republicans have a much larger lead than Democrats did four years ago, Harris has an uphill climb in Arizona compared to Biden, who beat Trump by just 10,457 votes in 2020.

Democrats are also losing the early voting race in Nevada. Republicans hold a 12,800-vote lead over Democrats in the state, with 241,800 votes cast compared to Democrats’ 229,000. Compared to 2020, Democrats had a 47,000-vote lead during early voting. This marks a 53,000-vote swing to Republicans in four years.

North Carolina voters tend not to wait until Election Day to vote. In 2020, Democrats held a 260,112 vote lead over Republicans heading into Election Day. In 2024, Republicans are outvoting Democrats by 100,000 votes. Harris hoped to flip North Carolina blue in 2024 despite knowing that Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020. The early voting results indicate that he will likely win North Carolina again. (ROOKE: Republicans’ Latest Swing State Win Is The Last Thing Democrats Want Right Now)

Georgia, a critical swing state, set a record for early voting in 2024 by reaching 50% turnout Thursday. It’s harder to break down the state’s early vote records for 2020 because the data by party is hard to find. Biden, however, won Georgia by just 11,779 votes. In 2024, early voter data shows Democrats have an advantage going into Election Day, but it likely won’t be long-lived.

While female voters in Georgia are surging in early voter turnout, which is good for Harris, so are voters age 65 and older who typically vote Republican. Democrats currently have a 100,000-vote lead in early voting. Still, Republicans tend to capture most of Election Day votes, allowing Trump to close this gap as Republicans have more registered voters than Democrats in Georgia.

Michigan will likely be the closest swing state contest between Trump and Harris. It’s not a sure win for Harris, however. While Democrats have more registered voters in the state, they have just around a 200,000-vote lead over Republicans in early voting results. Democrats cast 1.3 million votes in 2020, compared to Republicans’ 1.1 million.

Unlike in 2020, Harris is not enjoying a cushy vote lead in several swing states going into Election Day, where Republicans tend to outvote Democrats. While polling can fluctuate, the only data that can accurately portray whether Harris or Trump will win is actual votes tallied. And right now, Harris is struggling in the states she needs to win Nov. 5.

Mary Rooke is a Catholic mom of four and author of the Daily Caller's column featuring based takes on modern-day insanities. She also writes analysis for Patriot subscribers.

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