The Iran Endgame As Critics Cry Chaos And Markets Miss It

Part I: The Politics

So from the very beginning of the war in Iran, Democrats have vocally opposed every part of it.

There’s no imminent threat, they say. It will be a forever war. There has been no planning. And on and on. This has not always been the case however. 

Democratic presidents, like Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden, along with Republican presidents, like Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and now Donald Trump, have all said that Iran was a threat to the world. Only Mr. Trump had the courage to take action in order to wipe out that threat.

To be sure, it’s a nuclear threat. It’s a terrorist threat. It’s a threat to the very basic freedom and prosperity of the Middle East and the rest of the world. It’s a threat to America which has tragically lost thousands of people to Iran or their proxies over the past 47 years.

Mr. Trump seeks to end the 47 year forever war against America.

And all those Democrats who keep saying there was no planning ahead of the war are insulting the American military. General Frank McKenzie, the retired former commander of Central Command, made this very clear that America has been planning a campaign against Iran for many years. 

Here’s some of what General McKenzie said on one of the Sunday talk shows:

These are not back-of-the-envelope calculations. These are things we’ve been working on for many years. We’re on our way to doing that now. This is part of a plan that’s been in existence for many years. For many years, we’ve considered options along the southern coast of Iran, seizing islands, seizing small bases. Typically raids, and a raid is an operation with a planned withdrawal. You’re not going to stay. But some of those islands you could seize and hold, that would have a couple effects. First of all it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran.

Again, General McKenzie is the former commander of  Centcom. He’s not partisan. He’s not a Fox Contributor. He is a truth-teller.

And it’s worth noting that the information he is using is the same information Centcom is passing on to Mr. Trump. That is, we are ahead of schedule.

And we may be headed for a new Pentagon push to deal with the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian economy, enriched uranium, or who knows.

Yet Mr. Trump is keeping the heat on, and he’s telling the Iranians, whoever their new leadership may be, that if they don’t come around to the American conditions to end the war, he will be turning the heat up very substantially, perhaps in just a few days.

The Democratic critics and their legacy press handmaidens have the story, as usual, all wrong.

The key point is that the American military is executing this pre-planned mission brilliantly, and Mr. Trump has the courage and backbone to lead it.

Part II: The Markets

Stocks are falling and oil is rising. And a lot of bears are crawling out of the woodwork. And most of the press would have you believe that America is losing the war to Iran.

Among the most disgusting examples of that is the Economist magazine with a cover headlined: “Advantage Iran.”

Not only is this left-wing press disreputable hogwash, but the so-called bear case to sell stocks and buy oil I think will be proven very wrong.

Here’s my basic point: One way or another, all of Iran’s capabilities would be destroyed through military action whether there’s a deal or not.

And one way or another, our military will soon take control of the Strait of Hormuz again through military force whether there’s a deal or not.

Iran will never be the same when we are finished with it.

My hunch is like the Venezuela story, America will control Hormuz, and any Iranian money from Hormuz, and the disbursement of that money.

Even more, these outcomes are going to come sooner rather than later, and that’s why I believe investors should be buying stocks, preferably the broad-based index funds, and they should be selling oil. And by the way hold the index funds for 100 years or 200.

Regarding oil, the 12-month futures contract is down to about $75 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate, compared to about $100 a barrel in the spot market. That tells you something.

By the way, people in the oil business tell me the marginal cost to produce the extra barrel of oil is somewhere in the low to mid $60s.

So the futures are not all that far from the ultimate production-based pricing.

Here’s another point for the stock market. Profits are booming. Forward-looking profit estimates are well above $300 per share for S&P 500 companies, which gets you to something like 19 times earnings.

On top of that, the One, Big, Beautiful Bill is a supply-side stimulant for the economy that will boom in the post-war period. Let us not forget, tax cuts, 100 percent depreciation, free and fair reciprocal trade.

Inflation expectations are looking right through the temporary oil bulge. Ten-year break evens in the TIPS market haven’t moved at all and are hovering around 2.30 percent. Five-year forward inflation has remained barely higher than 2 percent, the market price of gold is falling, and “King Dollar” is rising.

Even the price of natural gas, which is really the global clean-burning fuel choice, hasn’t budged from around $3 per million British Thermal Units during this whole period.

My basic point against all this press misreporting and self-seeking bears is that America is going to take control of Hormuz, that’s going to settle down oil markets and the U.S.-Israeli coalition will be ending all of Iran’s capabilities.

And it’s not going to take much longer.

Lawrence Kudlow is a Fox News Media contributor and host of both “Kudlow” on weekdays and the nationally syndicated “Larry Kudlow Show” each Saturday. This column is adapted from his monologues on “Kudlow.”

1. Victor Davis Hanson: Why Trump’s Iran Strategy Isn’t A ‘Forever War’—It’s Deterrence—Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal

2. The Endgame Is Set—Editorial Board, TIPP Insight

3. Why Iran’s Escalation Strategy Is Likely to Backfire—Mohammed Al Dhaheri, Project Syndicate

4. War On Iran: It Is Cheaper To Pay For Hormuz Passage Than To Wage War—Moon of Alabama, The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity

5. Four Weeks, 5,035 Launches, And The Defenses Held—Editorial Board, TIPP Insights

6. NATO Is In Hospice—Editorial Board, TIPP Insights

7. Trump And Rubio Float Exit From NATO: ‘Paper Tiger’—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal

8. Cuba in Free Fall—Pavel Vidal, Project Syndicate

9. Cuba’s Third Chance—Enrique Krauze, Project Syndicate

10. No Deadline. Endless Counting. No Trust.—Editorial Board, TIPP Insights

11. Artificial Intelligence Hammers In The Final Nail In Karl Marx’s Coffin—Andy Fischer, Mises Wire

12. Justices Hear Potential Landmark Case On Birthright Citizenship—Fred Lucas, The Daily Signal

13. Vance Takes Major Step Toward Cracking Down On Fraud—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal

14. Our Problem Isn’t Kings; It’s The Presidency—Connor O'Keeffe, Mises Wire

15. LIFTOFF: Successful Artemis II Launch Sends Astronauts Into Deep Space—Virginia Grace McKinnon, The Daily Signal

16. Yes, Analytic Statements Matter—Roberto Ledezma, Mises Wire

📊 Market Mood — Friday, April 3, 2026

🟩 Markets Brace as Ground War Risks Rise
Investor sentiment turned cautious as signs pointed to a potential expansion into ground conflict.

🟧 Oil Risks Intensify on Threats to Energy Infrastructure
Fears of attacks on key oil hubs and regional facilities raised the risk of further supply shocks.

🟦 Conflict Signals Shift Toward Prolonged Escalation
Iran’s mobilization and U.S. troop buildup suggest a longer, more complex phase of the war.

🟨 Geopolitics Reasserts Dominance Over Markets
Escalating rhetoric and military positioning are driving volatility and overshadowing economic data.

🗓️ Key Economic Events — Friday, April 3, 2026

🟧 All Day — Good Friday (U.S. Holiday)
U.S. markets are closed, though key economic data is still released.

🟧 08:30 ET — Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate & Wages (Mar)
The monthly jobs report provides the most important read on labor market strength and wage pressures.

🟧 09:45 ET — S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
Measures activity in the services sector, a key driver of overall economic growth.