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The Left's Familiar Accusatory Playbook Won't Win This Time

Americans understand lawfare.

For decades, liberals have perfected a simple strategy: Accuse opponents of doing what you are already doing and win.

Bizarre as it may seem, Rolling Stone writers Asawin "Swin" Suebsaeng (who, as a bitter Trump critic, wrote a book called Sinking in the Swamp: How Trump's Minions and Misfits Poisoned Washington) and Adam Rawnsley published a piece saying that Trump plans to steal the 2024 election. They describe how Biden's allies are building a 'Superstructure' to prevent Trump's plans.

The public will not buy the charge that Trump will likely steal the 2024 election. If anything, they are convinced that the Left's various attempts to deny Trump a second term from the time he left office - including 91 charges in four different courts and repeated attempts by individual states such as Colorado, Maine, and Illinois even to prevent him a spot on the 2024 ballot - are proof that the opposite is true: Biden is trying to steal the 2024 election even before the country goes to the polls.

Despite nonstop media coverage, the charges against Trump fail to convince many outside the Democratic Party. According to a TIPP Poll conducted in August 2023, over a third (39%) of Americans held a negative view of Trump’s legal challenges. Thirty percent of respondents believed that the legal charges Trump faces amount to 'political harassment' by the Biden administration aimed at preventing him from running, while 9% considered the charges to be 'exaggerated'.

Recent reports that a Wisconsin GOP Congressman, a Never-Trumper, plans to retire from his seat on April 19, ten days after the last date for an automatic special election deadline in his conservative district, add more fuel to this theory. Mike Gallagher's retirement will mean his district will have no representation in Congress until November 2024. Each Republican House member quitting before his term brings the thin GOP majority even closer to Democratic parity. If Marjorie Taylor Greene pushes through on her resolution to unseat Speaker Mike Johnson, would the House shift control to Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries? If so, could Congress, under a Democratic House and Senate, push through a bill to deny Trump a position on the ballot, as the Supreme Court said it could? 

Back to 2020: In 2020, the Left engineered so many last-minute changes to voting that it was plausible that President Biden did not win. Plausible doesn't mean that it happened for sure. As the dictionary defines it, plausible means that something is superficially fair, reasonable, or valuable but often deceptively so. Liberal NPR analyzed the results and showed what a nail-biter match it was: "Just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College." As a data-driven firm, we remain unconvinced that Trump lost the 2020 election.

How can reasonable people doubt Biden's victory? 

2020 was an election like no other in American history. A raging pandemic and race riots gripped the nation in the aftermath of George Floyd. To avoid disenfranchising voters who may otherwise stay home, the common theme employed by the Left was to ignore voter identification requirements, significantly step up the use of drop boxes, expand no-excuse absentee ballots across states that had no experience with universal mail-in ballots, and use nearly $400 million of Zuckbucks to pay poll workers in Left-leaning areas. During counting, the remedies the Left sought and won were relaxed rules to accept late mail-in ballots and eliminating restrictions to verify ballot signatures against voter rolls.

At a time when the worker shortage was acute, poll workers were hard to come by. Even minor errors in individual precincts, deliberate or otherwise, could swing the outcome. Recall that the 44,000 votes were about a margin of 0.6% in each of these states. 

What about electoral history?

Trump received 74 million votes in the 2020 election, 11 million more than in 2016. No American president in 180 years had failed to win reelection if he won more votes than the first election. [In 2012, Obama handsomely won reelection, although he earned 4 million fewer votes than his 2008 total.] Trump expanded his coalition as more urban Black men and Hispanics voted for him, sending shock waves through the Democratic party. Yet he lost in 2020?

The nation had numerous opportunities to examine whether the 2020 elections were fair. In the heat of the aftermath, the courts never took up the question on its merits. The partisan J6 committee spent 18 months on every aspect of the Capitol unrest but never considered what brought hundreds of thousands of voters from around the country to Washington that day. The committee should have examined several vital questions: Did out-of-state residents or illegal immigrants vote? Were signatures on mail-in ballots checked with signatures on voter registration rolls? Were ballots that arrived at counting centers late checked to see if votes were cast before Election day? Why were so few absentee ballots rejected despite the massive expansion of mail voting?

Reasonable people want answers, and not finding them from established outlets only helped increase their discomfort about election integrity. In the Iowa primaries, nearly 70% of caucusgoers said Biden did not win in 2020.

Each time anyone mentioned doubts about the 2020 election, the Left pilloried them as election deniers. Using terms such as "no evidence," "unsubstantiated," "widely debunked," and "zero proof," the media squashed all plausible 2020 election irregularity theories and classified them as "conspiracies." 

But 2024 should be different. The RealClearPolitics polling averages, the gold standard to understand the nation's current mood, have Trump with a +1.7% lead over President Biden. In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada, Trump leads Biden by over five points, significantly greater than Biden's 2020 victory margins of 0.4%, 0.3%, 3.2%, and 3.4%, respectively. Trump is leading in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, although by not such commanding leads. If Trump's leads hold, he will indeed be reelected in November. 

If the election is close and Trump loses again - or is somehow convicted by a sham trial - the public will never forgive the Left for stealing the election to favor Biden.

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