The RealClearPolitics polling averages, the gold standard to understand the nation's current mood, have the Democrats truly worried.
Nationwide, former President Trump has a +1.7% lead over President Biden. In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada, Trump leads Biden by over five points, significantly greater than Biden's 2020 victory margins of 0.4%, 0.3%, 3.2%, and 3.4%, respectively. Trump is leading in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, although by not such commanding leads.
If Trump's leads hold, he will indeed be reelected in November. We can confidently say so because 2024 is a rematch, the first of its kind in over a century. Even if third-party candidates enter, they will likely be more noise than signal.
The 2020 election was extremely close. Liberal NPR analyzed the results and showed what a nail-biter match it was: "Just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College." We calculate the 44,000 votes to be about a margin of 0.6% in each of these states.
Trump is no ordinary candidate. He faces 91 criminal charges in four separate cases, including two in federal court under an aggressive prosecutor. He was impeached twice by the House and was the target of the J6 Committee, a Congressional creation designed to use taxpayer dollars to malign him for nearly 18 months. Media coverage during his presidency was so negative that it often swung to a 90-10 imbalance. At 77 years, Trump is only about three years younger than Biden, even as most Americans cite Biden's advanced age as a reason for his unpopularity.
So, what is powering Trump's performance?
Of course, Biden's failure as president, indicated by his 55.5% disapproval rating and the country's 65% wrong-track number, are factors. Public memory is short, and Americans tend to view their presidents more fondly in hindsight. Voters tell reporters they are nostalgic for Trump's years (low inflation, no new wars, a controlled border, a strong economy, and low unemployment).
But there is something more to it. Voters do not buy the Left's and media's lies about Trump anymore. On Saturday, campaigning in Michigan, Trump said that there would be a "bloodbath" if he loses the election. CBS News, Rolling Stone, and NBC News all carried headlines about the bloodbath comment. The Biden team criticized the former president's "threats of political violence." The problem? Trump was talking about auto manufacturing.
Americans see that the Left has tried every trick in the book - from ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’ to the latest Fani Willis RICO case - to bring Trump down. In each instance, the Left lied about what Trump supposedly did, sometimes using laws and lawfare to frame him.
In the Jean E. Carroll case, New York State pushed a law - valid only for one year - that allowed her to bring a rape case against Trump. The case was so fragile because Carroll could not even remember the year (in the mid-1990s) that the assault happened. There was no evidence presented (video footing, DNA evidence, witnesses) at all other than two friendly witnesses who testified that Carroll told them about the assault.
New York Attorney General Letitia James's civil suit against Trump relied on an obscure, rarely-used New York law that penalizes businesses that falsify records. James, who campaigned that she would "get Trump," filed a complaint in the court of Judge Engoran, who was so biased that he disallowed every motion that Trump made. Trump's arguments that he paid back all of his bank loans with interest, so there was no victim, fell on Engoran's deaf years. Even the banks filed a statement that they profited from dealing with Trump. Yet, Trump was charged a $450 million fine and forbidden to do business in a city where his name is synonymous with the city's landscape.
In many cases, the Left itself did what it accused Trump of doing. Biden held on to more classified documents than Trump ever did, in more locations than Trump. Biden was not even authorized to take them because he was a senator or Vice President. Yet, the Special Counsel decided that Biden would not be charged because he was too mentally frail to face a criminal trial. Meanwhile, Jack Smith's case against Trump is proceeding aggressively.
The Left has created such a bad situation for itself that it reminds us of the classic Cry Wolf bedtime story. Even if Trump were legitimately to be held guilty by a court of law, millions of Americans would never accept the verdict.
And then, there's the wokeness. The Left, chasing ideological purity, is thoroughly disconnected from how average Americans feel. The Left's mantra, which states that no human is illegal, might appeal in Hollywood. But America is also a nation of laws, and when someone crosses the border without proper documentation, they violate America's laws - and are deemed illegal.
The Left's argument that migrants are entitled to apply for asylum - and until their cases are adjudicated against them, they are legal - does not move voters. What Americans see is that 8 million people, none of them vetted, have crossed the border illegally - and not all of them are fleeing persecution due to their race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or their inclusion in a particular social group. In fact, the majority of the border crossers are young men looking for better employment opportunities. Asylum provisions do not include economic hardships.
Laken Riley, a 21-year woman, was brutally raped and murdered on the University of Georgia campus by an illegal alien who was already wanted for crimes in New York. Biden, in his State of the Union, mispronounced the victim's name, but acknowledged correctly that the accused was an illegal immigrant. Almost in the same breath, Biden said that several murders are committed by legal residents - a bizarre justification for the Riley murder. Worse, the next day, on MSNBC, Biden apologized for calling the murderer an illegal.
Despite the corporate media's portrayal of the November election as a battle between democracy and dictatorship, Trump, who switched parties seven times in 13 years, epitomizes a political movement that resonates with the common man on Main Street and is reshaping the political realignment of key voting blocs. Trump transcends parties and has an uncanny ability to connect with ordinary Americans, underscoring a shift in the political dynamics, challenging traditional narratives, and highlighting the complexities of contemporary politics. Simply put, MAGA is not a derogatory term, except in the eyes of the leftist media and ultra-liberals, who often adopt a condescending attitude akin to their dismissal of the Tea Party. Most Americans recognize this reality.
Elections are nearly always a referendum on the incumbent. In a rematch, such a referendum becomes much easier. All voters have to answer is a simple question that Ronald Reagan posed 40 years ago: "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?"
By orders of magnitude in the swing states, Americans are saying they are decidedly not better off, and it is time for Biden to be sent packing.
