By I & I Editorial Board | December 04, 2024
Under normal circumstances, it takes a year or two before a president can have an impact on the economy or world affairs. But Donald Trump won’t be president for almost two months, and already we are feeling the effects of his election.
Consumers are more confident, manufacturers more optimistic, investors more bullish. Canada is promising to toughen up its border controls. Ukraine is talking about how to end its nearly three-year-long war. There’s a ceasefire in the Middle East.
Heck, even Trump’s favorability rating broke through 50%, a rarity since he first announced his candidacy in 2015.
Let’s look at the evidence:
The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index jumped 13.4% in November to 53.2, the highest in more than three years. Anything over 50 indicates a positive for optimism, and this is the first time the index has been positive since September 2021
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index was up 2.1 points in November and “reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” according to chief economist Dana Peterson, who added that “the proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months fell further in November and was the lowest since we first asked the question in July 2022.”
Manufacturers are more upbeat. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says, “The mood among U.S. manufacturers brightened in November (and) optimism about the year ahead has improved to a level not beaten in two and a half years, buoyed by the … prospect of stronger economic growth.”
Investors are more hopeful about the future. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 7% since Nov. 4, as is the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 is up 6% “as investors cheer the president-elect’s plans to cut taxes and deregulate,” notes Bloomberg.
This can’t be dismissed as meaningless emotionalism. Those who are optimistic about tomorrow are more likely to take risks, invest, and spend today — spurring real growth.
Internationally, Trump is already having an effect. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “promised Donald Trump that Canada would increase surveillance over the long undefended joint border, a senior Canadian official said on Sunday,” the Guardian reports.
The New York Post reports that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky “says he’s willing to cede territory to Russia in exchange for NATO protection in stark departure from previous stance.” That war has cost U.S. taxpayers $114 billion and counting.
Over in the Middle East, Trump is promising that there will be “Hell to pay” if Hamas fails to release its hostages before his inauguration. (As our clock at the upper right of this page shows, Hamas has been holding American citizens hostage for 424 days.)
“Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire World, in the Middle East – But it’s all talk, and no action!” Trump posted on Truth Social. We suspect Hamas is listening.
Meanwhile, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire deal last week. “Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump,” said Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., Trump’s pick for national security adviser.
Sure, these could all be coincidences. But we doubt it. To us, they are signs that a cloud has lifted – a cloud seeded by President Joe Biden’s addled fecklessness and his administration’s utter incompetence.
Will these good tidings last? Who knows? But there’s a chance they will. And that’s much more than we’ve had in the past four years.
Issues & Insights was founded by seasoned journalists of the IBD Editorials page. Our mission is to provide timely, fact-based reporting and deeply informed analysis on the news of the day – without fear or favor.
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