By Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal | November 03, 2024
In battleground Michigan, two swing counties may determine which presidential candidate will clinch the state’s 15 Electoral College votes.
Oakland and Kent counties have undergone major demographic changes over the past two decades. Both used to be Republican strongholds, but growth in the Detroit suburbs and the city of Grand Rapids turned the counties from red to blue in 2020.
Yet many of the two counties’ demographics—members of the working class, black Americans, Arab Americans, Jews, and Christians—say they’ve grown weary of Democrats after three and a half years of inflation, open borders, and unrest abroad.
Although it is considered most likely that Vice President Kamala Harris will lead former President Donald Trump in both counties on Tuesday, the size of her lead could decide if she wins the state and perhaps the election.
Trump leads Harris by one percentage point, a trend that’s held for about a month, polling from Mitchell Research & Communications released Thursday shows.
“If they go very heavily for Harris, then that probably portends well for Harris,” said Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research, said of Oakland and Kent counties. “If, on the other hand, for some reason it’s within two or three points in Kent County and within maybe six or eight points in Oakland County for Harris, then probably Harris is going to lose.”
Here is what voters in each county told The Daily Signal during recent interviews on the ground.
Oakland County
Oakland County, in the suburbs of Detroit, is Michigan’s third-wealthiest, second-most populous, and third-most educated county.
The county was solidly red two decades ago but has become solidly blue as suburban residents increasingly vote Democrat, making it a campaign target for both candidates. Trump held a rally in Novi on Oct. 26, while Harris spoke in Waterford on Oct. 19.
Rocky Raczkowski, former chair of the Oakland County Republicans, said he has seen the county change over the past 10 years.
“A lot of people have moved into the county because they like the quality of life that the county gives or has, but they bring their politics with them,” Raczkowski said. “I don’t think there’s going to be a massive wall of Republican voters.”
“I see us doing better than ever before, but there’s a lot of competition in a lot of communities that have changed and have been historically Democratic,” he said of Republicans.
Early voters for Harris told The Daily Signal at Oakland County polling places that they support the vice president because of “democracy,” abortion access, the environment, gun control, and their dislike of Trump’s personality. Residents of the wealthy county are more likely to be concerned about Harris’ pet issues than the inflated costs of groceries and gas.
An Indian couple who spoke with The Daily Signal anonymously at a Novi polling place said that although being legal immigrants prompted them to support a secure border, they voted for Harris because they support abortion without limitation.
Gabby Ponce and her young adult son, who asked to remain anonymous, said their top three issues are “climate change, reproductive rights, and gun control.”
“This county has trended more blue in recent years,” the son said. “So hopefully, I think it’s a good
sign that it’s going to tilt that way.”
Renee Brennan, 68, told The Daily Signal that she voted against Trump because of her concerns about “democracy, freedom, and truth.”
A woman who said her name is Stephanie said she was voting for Harris so her daughter could have an abortion.
“My daughter having the same rights that my mom had growing up is probably the number one [reason], ensuring that she has those freedoms,” she said. “And then also just unity versus, like, pro-hate.”
Bob and Elizabeth Martinez also voted for Harris to preserve their daughter’s “reproductive rights.” They believe in the “right to choose” for the entire pregnancy, they told The Daily Signal.
But Republicans in Oakland County said they believe they have a chance at winning back some of the lead that Joe Biden took over Trump in 2020. On his way to the presidency, Biden won 100,000 more votes in Oakland County than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
Lisa Marker and her husband told The Daily Signal that they voted for Trump because they miss four years ago.
“I would like to go back to Trump, where people can’t come across the border like they are now because I think it’s affecting everything,” Marker said. “I also think our economy is a mess, and I think it’s all due to, well, the policies and the pipeline. They need to drill in the United States.”
“Drill, baby, drill,” her husband added.
An Oakland County military veteran who wished to remain anonymous told The Daily Signal that he voted for Trump because he would close the border, remedy inflation, and stop the wars in Israel and Ukraine.
“He will bring down inflation, drill, you know, with energy, get gas prices down, fuel prices down, which will bring down inflation and show strength to the world,” he said.
Debbie and Dave Thomas spoke to The Daily Signal at a Farmington Hills early-voting location. They said they would never vote for Harris because of her radical stance on abortion. The Thomases voted for Trump because he is more pro-life than Harris, and they prefer his plan for the economy and inflation.
Breezy Mohammed, 21, a black resident of Oakland County, told The Daily Signal at the Trump rally Oct. 26 in Novi that he is casting his first-ever vote for Trump because he believes the former president will protect his gun rights.
Mohammed said high grocery and gas prices have affected Americans nationwide, so he believes they will vote for a change.
“I think from talking to people, talking to my friends, even the youth, all my friends are voting Trump,” he said.
Raczkowski, former head of the Oakland GOP, said he has seen Jewish and Muslim Americans in Oakland County move toward Trump. He is Polish and his wife is from Lebanon, he said, so they are connected to the Jewish and Arab communities.
“This is an election that I’m seeing more and more Jewish Americans actually focus on freedom and on the safety and security of their children. And they’re taking it seriously, very seriously, this election,” Raczkowski told The Daily Signal.
He said some Muslims are supporting Trump because of his stance of peace through strength.
“Trump is the one that would create peace in the Middle East,” Raczkowski said. “They’ve seen it before, and they’re willing to take that gamble a second time.”
Raczkowski said county residents aren’t just voting for Trump because they’re upset with Harris and Biden, who dropped out of the race in July and endorsed his vice president.
“Harris is trying to make it that democracy is on the ballot, and that Trump is unstable and should not be on the ballot,” he said. “That’s not the Republican message that I see coming out of Trump in Michigan. It’s, ‘I want you to vote for me because this is what I’ll do.’ And President Trump is actually giving these individuals a positive future that they can buy into.”
Oakland County Republicans say they have talked to more and more black residents who are voting Republican, Raczkowski said. Blacks make up 13.9% of Oakland County.
“The Republican message is way more in line with where most African Americans stand than the Democratic message,” he said. “They’re concerned about the economy, concerned about the border, concerned about competition, concerned about American strength.”
Raczkowski said he finds it “racist” that Democrats think they have the secret sauce on how black Americans vote.
“It’s interesting how you see more and more black men and women actually talking about the education of their kids and about the ability for their children to be able to compete on the world stage, and how our schools are doing, and how we have these open borders,” Raczkowski said. “You’re hearing it from health care to education.”
Republicans feel the energy and momentum in Oakland County, he said
“You could feel the momentum of people just saying, ‘Yeah, you know what, I’m not buying into this,’ and they’re not buying into the transformation of Kamala Harris,” the former GOP chairman said.
“Some disaffected people, that have for a long time felt disaffected, have found a home in the Republican Party and with Donald Trump,” Raczkowski said. “It’s miraculous how I’ve seen Donald Trump totally bring people into the party.”
Kent County
Biden won Kent County, home to Grand Rapids and its suburbs, by a narrow margin in 2020, claiming about 52% of the vote. The former Republican stronghold hadn’t chosen a Democrat for president since 2008, when it went for Barack Obama by only 1,500 votes.
Kent County’s Hispanic population increased by 10% between the 2010 and 2020 censuses. The county saw a 9.2% population increase from 2010 to 2020, well above the state’s 2% growth rate overall.
“Kent County is important simply because we obviously have had changing political demographics from a reliably red county at the top of the ticket to a somewhat purple, battleground county in a battleground state,” said Lisa Posthumus Lyons, who is Kent County clerk and a former Republican state representative.
“I think Kent County is important not just because we’re the battleground, but because Michigan is a battleground,” Lyons said.
She told The Daily Signal that if the road to the White House runs through Michigan, then to win Michigan, a candidate must perform well in Kent County.
“There’s been a lot of focus and attention on Kent County,” Lyons said, “and you can definitely feel that in the air. You can feel the excitement with all of our voters.”
She said Kent County has seen frequent visits from both major presidential candidates, more such visits than ever before. Harris rallied in Grand Rapids on Oct. 18, and Trump traveled there Sept. 27.
Trump will hold his closing rally in Grand Rapids on Monday, the final campaign stop of his two previous campaigns.
Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, held a town hall Tuesday at Cornerstone University in Grand Rapids.
“It’s really exciting, and we’re gearing up for a real close election,” Lyons said.
The Daily Signal spoke to voters Monday in Grand Rapids at another early-voting location, St. Peter and Paul Catholic School.
Republicans expressed concerns about the economy, abortion, and the border crisis. Democrats again said they were voting for Harris to preserve democracy—a major Democrat talking point—as well as because they support abortion and disapprove of Trump’s personality.
One young woman in her 20s who asked to remain anonymous said she was voting so that she can afford groceries and housing again.
“Grand Rapids is a huge middle-class city, and so for a lot of us, it’s just trying to live a peaceful life and whatever can get us closer to that,” she said.
The woman, who said it was the second election in which she was able to vote, also said she has seen many Republicans decide to vote Democrat this time.
One Democrat who declined to share his name said that the past four years have been positive for his family, especially since prescription drug costs have been reduced for him.
“Luckily, you know, financially, we’re in a decent place. So, the economy has been going well, like that’s been positive for us. I mean, yes, inflation has been certainly a challenge. But like, overall, I would say I’m in a better spot than I was four years ago,” he said.
This Democrat said he thinks there is a decent chance that Michigan will go for Harris, though he acknowledged it will be close.
A single mother who identified herself as Sherri S. said she is voting for Trump because she was better off four years ago.
“This past three and a half years, it’s been terrible, and I’m a single parent struggling,” she said. “And I work every single day, usually at least 15 hours a day, every day, seven days a week, just to try to make it. So I don’t want my kids to have to go through that.”
Sherri said the economy and border security are the most important issues to her.
“I’d like the border closed so we know who’s coming in and out,” she said. “I don’t mind people having a choice to come in. I think everybody should have that choice. I just think they should do it the right way and not, you know—it’s just really dangerous right now.”
Lyons, Kent County’s clerk, said she hasn’t seen a measurable party realignment, but she has seen increased engagement.
The county’s steady population increase likely will mean more residents will vote, she said.
“We are at the highest voter registration numbers that we’ve seen, and hopefully that translates into high participation in this election,” Lyons said.
In nearby Wyoming, the second-biggest city in Kent County, voters waited in a long line out the door of the Wyoming Public Library.
An older man who identified himself as Rodney told The Daily Signal that he voted for Trump because of the economy and because he is pro-life. He said he believes Trump will “stimulate the economy back to where it was.”
“I’m not crazy about his MAGA thing,” Rodney said, “but I do like the issues that he has brought forward.”
Rodney said he always has been conservative, but he knows some Wyoming residents are voting Republican for the first time.
“I’ve seen people, for a fact, that have voted Democrat all these years get sick of it,” he said. “They want something new. They want something real.”
Grocery store manager Chris Wynia said he would have voted for Trump if he had done a better job refraining from “fearmongering” in the campaign.
“I don’t think that necessarily, the candidate that I voted for was like 100% amazing. And I think that if the other candidate had done a little better, they could have gotten my vote changed,” he said. “But I don’t think they did. I think that they focused on the past, and they focused on fearmongering.”
“It seemed like one candidate was most worried about immigration to an alarming degree,” Wynia said. “We could have focused on actual issues of policy and instead it was ‘Immigrants are crossing and killing people and all the cities are unsafe,’ and stuff like that.”
But Rusty Richter, owner of a small real estate business in Wyoming, said he voted for Trump so that he can “buy groceries and gas at a normal price.” He also said he has seen a lot of people vote differently than they did in 2020.
“Gas and groceries and everything else went up in the last four years, so people want change,” Richter told The Daily Signal.
Elizabeth (Troutman) Mitchell is the reporting fellow for The Daily Signal and co-host of "The Daily Signal Podcast."
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